Case comparison
Dreams & Nightmares Case vs Recoil Case
Cost, modeled expected return and ROI, gold odds and pool contents for both cases, using a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC.
 Dreams & Nightmares Case |  Recoil Case | |
|---|---|---|
| Released | 2021-11-17 | 2022-05-30 |
| Case price | $1.84 | $0.47 |
| Key price | $2.50* | $2.50* |
| Total open cost | $4.34 | $2.97 |
| Expected return | $2.06 | $1.46 |
| Modeled ROI | 47.4% | 49.3% |
| Gold odds | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 |
| P(knife) | 0.256% | — |
| P(gloves) | — | 0.256% |
| Rare-special items | 50 (50 knife · 0 glove) | 24 (0 knife · 24 glove) |
| Knife / glove families | Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, Falchion Knife, Huntsman Knife, Shadow Daggers | Broken Fang Gloves, Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves |
| Mil-Spec skins | 7 | 7 |
| Restricted skins | 5 | 5 |
| Classified skins | 3 | 3 |
| Covert skins | 2 | 2 |
| Highest-priced outcome | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) — $1,851.93 | ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) — $1,550.00 |
* Key price is the $2.50 in-game store price because the key has no Steam market listing.
What the numbers show
- Based on DropLabz's current price snapshot, Recoil Case has the higher modeled ROI (49.3% vs 47.4%). Both are below 100%, meaning each has a negative modeled expected value.
- In dollar terms, Dreams & Nightmares Case has the higher modeled expected return ($2.06 vs $1.46), but it also costs more to open, so its ROI is lower.
- Recoil Case costs less to open: $2.97 (case + key) against $4.34 for Dreams & Nightmares Case.
- Both have the same gold (rare-special) chance, 0.256% (1 in 391), since both carry the same rarity tiers.
- Dreams & Nightmares Case's rare-special pool has knives only (50 items); Recoil Case's has gloves only (24 items).
This is a description of modeled figures, not a recommendation. ROI is expected return ÷ opening cost under DropLabz's rarity model (equal weighting within each tier, 10% StatTrak on eligible skins); unpriced outcomes are excluded from expected return. Prices come from a snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC.
Dreams & Nightmares Case
Recoil Case
See every case ranked on Case ROI, the rarity math on CS2 case odds, knife chances on CS2 knife odds, or other case comparisons.