CS2 Case Opening Odds
Every CS2 weapon case uses the same rarity odds: 79.92% blue, 15.98% purple, 3.20% pink, 0.64% red and 0.26% gold. Gold is the Rare Special Item: a knife or gloves.
CS2 case odds by rarity
| Rarity | Colour | Drop chance | Odds | Relative rarity | Cases for a 50% chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | Blue | 79.92% | 1 in 1.3 | baseline | 1 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.985% | 1 in 6.3 | 1/5 of blue | 4 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.197% | 1 in 31.3 | 1/25 of blue | 22 |
| Covert | Red | 0.639% | 1 in 156 | 1/125 of blue | 109 |
| Rare Special Item | Gold | 0.256% | 1 in 391 | 1/312.5 of blue | 271 |
Valve's published rule is a ratio, not a fixed table: each rarity is 5× rarer than the one below it, and the Rare Special Item is 2.5× rarer than Covert. Normalised over the five tiers, that gives the percentages above. All 42 weapon cases in DropLabz's dataset carry all five tiers, so these odds apply to every one of them.
Chance of at least one drop after N cases
| Rarity | 10 cases | 100 cases | 1,000 cases |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purple (Restricted) | 82.5% | > 99.9% | > 99.9% |
| Pink (Classified) | 27.7% | 96.1% | > 99.9% |
| Red (Covert) | 6.2% | 47.3% | 99.8% |
| Gold (Rare Special Item) | 2.5% | 22.6% | 92.3% |
Openings are independent, so the chance of at least one drop in N cases is 1 − (1 − p)N. For knives specifically, with any number of cases or a target chance, use the CS2 knife chance calculator.
StatTrak odds
| StatTrak™ drop | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ blue | 7.992% | 1 in 12.5 |
| StatTrak™ purple | 1.598% | 1 in 62.6 |
| StatTrak™ pink | 0.320% | 1 in 313 |
| StatTrak™ red | 0.064% | 1 in 1,564 |
| StatTrak™ gold (knives only) | 0.026% | 1 in 3,910 |
A StatTrak-eligible drop has a separate 10% chance of being the StatTrak™ version, whatever its rarity. Gloves never come in StatTrak™. Wear (Factory New to Battle-Scarred) is rolled separately from the skin's float range; the mechanics are on data and methodology.
Odds of one specific skin, by case
| Case | Blue skins | Purple | Pink | Red | One specific red skin | Gold odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.639% · 1 in 156 | 0.256% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.639% · 1 in 156 | 0.256% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.639% · 1 in 156 | 0.256% |
| eSports 2013 Case | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.639% · 1 in 156 | 0.256% |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0.639% · 1 in 156 | 0.256% |
| Chroma 2 Case | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Chroma 3 Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Chroma Case | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Clutch Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| CS20 Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Danger Zone Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Falchion Case | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Fever Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Fracture Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Gallery Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Gamma 2 Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Gamma Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Glove Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Horizon Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Kilowatt Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Operation Bravo Case | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Operation Broken Fang Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Operation Hydra Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Operation Riptide Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Operation Wildfire Case | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Prisma 2 Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Prisma Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Recoil Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Revolution Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Revolver Case | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Shadow Case | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Shattered Web Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Snakebite Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Spectrum 2 Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Spectrum Case | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | 0.256% |
Inside a rarity every skin is equally likely, so the chance of one exact skin is the rarity's drop chance divided by the number of skins of that rarity in the case. Each case page lists the chance of every item it contains.
CS2 case odds: common questions
What are the odds of each rarity in a CS2 case?
What are the odds of a red (Covert) skin?
What are the odds of a gold (knife or gloves)?
Do some cases have better odds than others?
Do case odds change the more you open?
Rank cases by value on best CS2 cases to open, by price on cheapest CS2 cases, or browse all 42 cases.