Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.
Rarity odds
Expected value
Assumptions
- Open cost = case price + key price.
- Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
- P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
- Unpriced outcomes (2%) are excluded from the EV.
- Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.
Rare special item pool
0.256% combined13 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 5,083 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).
Covert
0.639% · 2 skins
Classified
3.197% · 3 skins
Restricted
15.985% · 5 skins
Mil-Spec Grade
79.92% · 7 skins
CS20 Case at a glance
The CS20 Case was released on 2019-10-14. One opening costs $24.99 ($1.64 for the case plus $23.35 for the key), which ranks 29 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $2.54 per opening, a modeled ROI of 10.2% (42 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.
Knives: Classic Knife (13 finishes)
Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0197% per opening (1 in 5,083) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).
Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.
Most valuable skins in the CS20 Case
| Skin | Rarity | Chance per opening | Steam price by wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Wildfire | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $49.78 – $242.53 |
| FAMAS | Commemoration | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $40.70 – $108.79 |
| MP9 | Hydra | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $6.54 – $62.98 |
| P250 | Inferno | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $0.77 – $34.35 |
| AUG | Death by Puppy | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $5.88 – $23.24 |
| Glock-18 | Sacrifice | Mil-Spec Grade | 11.418% · 1 in 8.8 | $0.36 – $22.92 |
| P90 | Nostalgia | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $4.81 – $19.85 |
| FAMAS | Decommissioned | Mil-Spec Grade | 11.418% · 1 in 8.8 | $0.37 – $18.12 |
The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.
CS20 Case knives: cheapest and most expensive
Cheapest knives
- Classic Knife | Safari Meshfrom $86.76
- Classic Knife | Boreal Forestfrom $90.73
- Classic Knife | Forest DDPATfrom $91.39
- Classic Knife | Scorchedfrom $101.67
- Classic Knife | Urban Maskedfrom $102.47
- Classic Knife | Stainedfrom $117.49
Most expensive knives
- Classic Knife | Fadefrom $345.00
- Classic Knifefrom $256.99
- Classic Knife | Slaughterfrom $220.30
- Classic Knife | Crimson Webfrom $202.65
- Classic Knife | Case Hardenedfrom $157.09
- Classic Knife | Blue Steelfrom $144.68
Each of the 13 finishes has the same 1 in 5,083 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.
CS20 Case knife odds after N openings
| Cases opened | At least one knife | One specific finish | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.5% | 0.20% | $249.90 |
| 50 | 12.0% | 0.98% | $1,249.50 |
| 100 | 22.6% | 1.95% | $2,499.00 |
| 250 | 47.3% | 4.80% | $6,247.50 |
| 500 | 72.2% | 9.37% | $12,495.00 |
| 1,000 | 92.3% | 17.86% | $24,990.00 |
0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $6,772.29 and $22,491.00 at today's $24.99 per opening).
CS20 Case: odds, cost and value
What are the knife odds in the CS20 Case?
What are the drop rates in the CS20 Case?
How much does it cost to open the CS20 Case?
Is the CS20 Case worth opening?
What is the best item in the CS20 Case?
Trade up to CS20 Case skins
Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.
- ★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel
- ★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest
- ★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened
- ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web
- ★ Classic Knife | Fade
- ★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT
- ★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe
- ★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh
- ★ Classic Knife | Scorched
- ★ Classic Knife | Slaughter
- ★ Classic Knife | Stained
- ★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked
- AWP | Wildfire
- FAMAS | Commemoration
- AUG | Death by Puppy
- MP9 | Hydra
- P90 | Nostalgia
- Five-SeveN | Buddy
- M249 | Aztec
- MP5-SD | Agent
- P250 | Inferno
- UMP-45 | Plastique
