droplabz
Fracture Case
Weapon case

Fracture Case Odds, Drops & ROI

Released 2020-07-13 · 17 skins · 52 rare-special
Case price
$0.78
Key price
$2.50
store price (not marketable)
Open cost
$3.28

Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.

Rarity odds

Mil-Spec Grade
79.92%
Restricted
15.985%
Classified
3.197%
Covert
0.639%
Rare Special Item
0.256%
Knife / glove0.256% · 1 in 391
Covert+0.895%
StatTrak roll10% on eligible items
Within a tiereach skin equally likely

Expected value

Expected return
$1.38
Expected profit
−$1.90
ROI
-57.8%
House edge
57.8%
Profit chance / open
5.3%
Price coverage
99%
Rare-special contribution$0.4552
StatTrak contribution$0.0286
Assumptions
  • Open cost = case price + key price (key not marketable → $2.50 store price).
  • Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
  • P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
  • Unpriced outcomes (1%) are excluded from the EV.
  • Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.

Rare special item pool

0.256% combined

52 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 20,332 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).

Covert

0.639% · 2 skins

Classified

3.197% · 3 skins

Restricted

15.985% · 5 skins

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92% · 7 skins

Fracture Case at a glance

The Fracture Case was released on 2020-07-13. One opening costs $3.28 ($0.78 for the case plus $2.50 for the key, the in-game store price since the key has no market listing), which ranks 5 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $1.38 per opening, a modeled ROI of 42.2% (15 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.

Open cost
$3.28
Expected return
$1.38
Modeled ROI
42.2%
Gold odds
0.256%
1 in 391
P(knife)
0.256%
1 in 391
P(gloves)
—
No gloves
Rare-special pool
52
52 knife · 0 glove
Released
2020-07-13
Knife & glove families in this case

Knives: Nomad Knife (13 finishes), Paracord Knife (13 finishes), Skeleton Knife (13 finishes), Survival Knife (13 finishes)

Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0049% per opening (1 in 20,332) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).

Open the Fracture Case in the simulatorCompare ROI across every caseKnife chance calculatorKnife and glove odds by caseHow CS2 case odds workCase cost calculator

Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.

Most valuable skins in the Fracture Case

SkinRarityChance per openingSteam price by wear
Desert Eagle | PrintstreamCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$48.55 – $110.83
AK-47 | Legion of AnubisCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$46.59 – $82.16
Glock-18 | VogueClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$4.75 – $28.26
M4A4 | Tooth FairyClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$4.81 – $25.78
Tec-9 | BrotherRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.53 – $10.39
XM1014 | EntombedClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$4.98 – $9.96
MAC-10 | AllureRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.53 – $6.08
Galil AR | ConnexionRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.56 – $5.89

The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.

Fracture Case knives: cheapest and most expensive

Cheapest knives

Most expensive knives

Each of the 52 finishes has the same 1 in 20,332 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.

Fracture Case knife odds after N openings

Cases openedAt least one knifeOne specific finishCost
102.5%0.05%$32.80
5012.0%0.25%$164.00
10022.6%0.49%$328.00
25047.3%1.22%$820.00
50072.2%2.43%$1,640.00
1,00092.3%4.80%$3,280.00

0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $888.88 and $2,952.00 at today's $3.28 per opening).

Fracture Case: odds, cost and value

What are the knife odds in the Fracture Case?

0.26% per opening, or 1 in 391. The pool holds 52 finishes across 4 types (Nomad Knife, Paracord Knife, Skeleton Knife, Survival Knife), so one exact finish is 1 in 20,332. On average one of its knives costs about $1,282.48 in openings.

What are the drop rates in the Fracture Case?

Mil-Spec Grade (blue) 79.92%, Restricted (purple) 15.98%, Classified (pink) 3.20%, Covert (red) 0.64%, Rare Special Item (gold) 0.26%. It contains 17 weapon skins and 52 knife finishes; each skin inside a rarity is equally likely, and eligible drops have a 10% StatTrak™ chance.

How much does it cost to open the Fracture Case?

$3.28 per opening: $0.78 for the case and $2.50 for the key. Ten openings cost $32.80 and 100 cost $328.00; it is number 5 of 42 on the list of cheapest CS2 cases.

Is the Fracture Case worth opening?

On average it returns $1.38 for every $3.28 opening, an ROI of 42.2% (rank 15 of 42 cases). About 5.3% of single openings return more than they cost. How it compares is on best CS2 cases to open.

What is the best item in the Fracture Case?

By current Steam Market price, the most valuable possible drop is the ★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at about $1,525.62.

Trade up to Fracture Case skins

Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.

Compare this case

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