- Cost
- $233.91
- EV
- 72%
- $168.35
- Profit
- −$87.52
- after fee
- Win %
- 15%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.857 (needs < 0.875)52 outcomesActive market
Knife finish
Survival Knife | Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The Survival Knife | Fade starts at $212.00 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 20,332 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$212.00
Factory New
Drops from
2 cases
Fracture Case
Best drop odds
1 in 20,332
0.0049% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$66,688.96
in the Fracture Case
Survival Knife | Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $212.00 | $240.56 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | $237.41 | $357.71 | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $212.00; unboxing this exact finish costs about $66,688.96 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Survival Knife | Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fracture Case | 0.0049% · 1 in 20,332 | 52 | $3.28 | $66,688.96 |
| Shattered Web Case | 0.0049% · 1 in 20,332 | 52 | $10.33 | $210,029.56 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Survival Knife | Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Survival Knife | Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 1.9%.
- Cost
- $188.98
- EV
- 62%
- $117.17
- Profit
- −$87.09
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.819 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $189.79
- EV
- 80%
- $151.37
- Profit
- −$58.17
- after fee
- Win %
- 22%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.762 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $193.63
- EV
- 78%
- $151.37
- Profit
- −$62.01
- after fee
- Win %
- 22%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.652 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $346.83
- EV
- 105%
- $364.15
- Profit
- −$30.18
- after fee
- Win %
- 36%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)117 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $350.67
- EV
- 104%
- $364.15
- Profit
- −$34.02
- after fee
- Win %
- 34%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.570 (needs < 0.875)117 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Survival Knife | Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $188.98 | 1.9% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel★ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web★ Nomad Knife | Fade★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh★ Nomad Knife | Scorched★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter★ Nomad Knife | Stained★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.