Best CS2 cases to open, ranked by modeled ROI
The best CS2 case to open right now, by expected value, is the Gallery Case: 67.4% ROI, or $2.55 back on average for a $3.78 opening. The Snakebite Case (62.8%) and Prisma 2 Case (57.7%) are next. All 42 cases are ranked below by expected return per opening divided by case + key cost, using a Steam Community Market snapshot.
Cases by modeled ROI
| # | Case | ROI | Expected return | Open cost | Gold odds | Price coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gallery Case | 67.4% | $2.55 | $3.78 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 100% |
| 2 |  Snakebite Case | 62.8% | $2.04 | $3.24 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 98% |
| 3 |  Prisma 2 Case | 57.7% | $2.62 | $4.55 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 99% |
| 4 |  CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | 56.9% | $25.53 | $44.84 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 91% |
| 5 |  Fever Case | 52.9% | $1.79 | $3.39 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 100% |
| 6 |  Operation Broken Fang Case | 49.7% | $5.98 | $12.03 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 98% |
| 7 |  Recoil Case | 49.3% | $1.46 | $2.97 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 98% |
| 8 |  CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | 48.5% | $13.00 | $26.80 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 91% |
| 9 |  Operation Hydra Case | 48.2% | $22.35 | $46.35 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 83% |
| 10 |  Dreams & Nightmares Case | 47.4% | $2.06 | $4.34 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 100% |
| 11 |  Shattered Web Case | 46.3% | $4.79 | $10.33 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 99% |
| 12 |  Revolution Case | 45.2% | $1.30 | $2.88 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 97% |
| 13 |  Kilowatt Case | 45.2% | $1.24 | $2.74 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 100% |
| 14 |  eSports 2013 Winter Case | 42.9% | $18.40 | $42.93 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 91% |
| 15 |  Fracture Case | 42.2% | $1.38 | $3.28 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 99% |
| 16 |  Operation Riptide Case | 39.0% | $6.76 | $17.32 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 100% |
| 17 |  eSports 2014 Summer Case | 33.3% | $12.00 | $36.05 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 92% |
| 18 |  Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 33.2% | $8.91 | $26.85 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 91% |
| 19 |  Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 30.5% | $6.80 | $22.27 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 91% |
| 20 |  CS:GO Weapon Case | 29.7% | $54.70 | $184.28 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 90% |
| 21 |  Glove Case | 25.8% | $10.00 | $38.69 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 83% |
| 22 |  Huntsman Weapon Case | 25.7% | $7.05 | $27.48 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 97% |
| 23 |  Operation Bravo Case | 25.3% | $24.45 | $96.53 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 91% |
| 24 |  Chroma Case | 23.9% | $5.39 | $22.55 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 98% |
| 25 |  eSports 2013 Case | 23.0% | $19.35 | $83.96 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 90% |
| 26 |  Operation Wildfire Case | 22.8% | $5.36 | $23.53 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 96% |
| 27 |  Chroma 2 Case | 21.8% | $4.67 | $21.44 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 98% |
| 28 |  Revolver Case | 21.6% | $3.72 | $17.18 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 92% |
| 29 |  Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | 20.6% | $4.51 | $21.95 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 91% |
| 30 |  Shadow Case | 19.9% | $3.46 | $17.43 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 97% |
| 31 |  Horizon Case | 18.4% | $3.34 | $18.14 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 97% |
| 32 |  Gamma Case | 17.9% | $4.28 | $23.95 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 97% |
| 33 |  Prisma Case | 17.4% | $3.16 | $18.21 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 99% |
| 34 |  Falchion Case | 16.8% | $3.22 | $19.19 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 96% |
| 35 |  Spectrum Case | 16.7% | $4.09 | $24.46 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 96% |
| 36 |  Gamma 2 Case | 16.6% | $3.92 | $23.69 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 97% |
| 37 |  Operation Breakout Weapon Case | 16.5% | $6.51 | $39.42 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 96% |
| 38 |  Spectrum 2 Case | 15.1% | $3.40 | $22.43 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 96% |
| 39 |  Chroma 3 Case | 14.6% | $3.98 | $27.23 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 98% |
| 40 |  Danger Zone Case | 10.2% | $2.30 | $22.53 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 97% |
| 41 |  Clutch Case | 10.2% | $1.55 | $15.20 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 97% |
| 42 |  CS20 Case | 10.2% | $2.54 | $24.99 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 98% |
How this is calculated
Expected return is computed analytically over every (skin, wear, StatTrak) outcome using DropLabz's rarity model — each tier 5× rarer than the one below, gold 2.5× rarer than Covert, skins within a tier equally likely, 10% StatTrak on eligible skins — priced from the snapshot. ROI = expected return ÷ open cost, where open cost is the case price plus its key.
Outcomes with no market price are excluded, which can understate expected return; the coverage column shows how much of each case was priced. Keys without a Steam market price use the $2.50 store price. Gold odds are the chance of any knife or glove on one opening.
Prices: csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC. DropLabz shows the snapshot's own timestamp; it is not a live feed.
full case ROI table with sorting, cheapest cases to open, best cases for a knife, your knife chance after N cases, CS2 case odds, or run a bulk simulation.