droplabz
Fever Case
Weapon case

Fever Case Odds, Drops & ROI

Released 2025-02-04 · 17 skins · 52 rare-special
Case price
$0.89
Key price
$2.50
store price (not marketable)
Open cost
$3.39

Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.

Rarity odds

Mil-Spec Grade
79.92%
Restricted
15.985%
Classified
3.197%
Covert
0.639%
Rare Special Item
0.256%
Knife / glove0.256% · 1 in 391
Covert+0.895%
StatTrak roll10% on eligible items
Within a tiereach skin equally likely

Expected value

Expected return
$1.79
Expected profit
−$1.60
ROI
-47.1%
House edge
47.1%
Profit chance / open
5.2%
Price coverage
100%
Rare-special contribution$0.634
StatTrak contribution$0.0533
Assumptions
  • Open cost = case price + key price (key not marketable → $2.50 store price).
  • Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
  • P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
  • Unpriced outcomes (0%) are excluded from the EV.
  • Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.

Rare special item pool

0.256% combined

28 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 10,948 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).

Covert

0.639% · 2 skins

Classified

3.197% · 3 skins

Restricted

15.985% · 5 skins

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92% · 7 skins

Fever Case at a glance

The Fever Case was released on 2025-02-04. One opening costs $3.39 ($0.89 for the case plus $2.50 for the key, the in-game store price since the key has no market listing), which ranks 6 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $1.79 per opening, a modeled ROI of 52.9% (5 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.

Open cost
$3.39
Expected return
$1.79
Modeled ROI
52.9%
Gold odds
0.256%
1 in 391
P(knife)
0.256%
1 in 391
P(gloves)
—
No gloves
Rare-special pool
52
52 knife · 0 glove
Released
2025-02-04
Knife & glove families in this case

Knives: Nomad Knife (7 finishes), Paracord Knife (7 finishes), Skeleton Knife (7 finishes), Survival Knife (7 finishes)

Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0091% per opening (1 in 10,948) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).

Open the Fever Case in the simulatorCompare ROI across every caseKnife chance calculatorKnife and glove odds by caseHow CS2 case odds workCase cost calculator

Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.

Most valuable skins in the Fever Case

SkinRarityChance per openingSteam price by wear
AWP | PrintstreamCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$58.69 – $290.37
FAMAS | Bad TripCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$58.39 – $112.16
Glock-18 | ShinobuClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$5.80 – $42.08
AK-47 | Searing RageClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$5.27 – $38.65
UMP-45 | K.O. FactoryClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$5.59 – $26.13
Galil AR | ControlRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.58 – $8.13
Nova | Rising SunRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.58 – $6.37
P90 | Wave BreakerRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.58 – $5.77

The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.

Fever Case knives: cheapest and most expensive

Cheapest knives

Most expensive knives

Each of the 28 finishes has the same 1 in 10,948 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.

Fever Case knife odds after N openings

Cases openedAt least one knifeOne specific finishCost
102.5%0.09%$33.90
5012.0%0.46%$169.50
10022.6%0.91%$339.00
25047.3%2.26%$847.50
50072.2%4.46%$1,695.00
1,00092.3%8.73%$3,390.00

0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $918.69 and $3,051.00 at today's $3.39 per opening).

Fever Case: odds, cost and value

What are the knife odds in the Fever Case?

0.26% per opening, or 1 in 391. The pool holds 28 finishes across 4 types (Nomad Knife, Paracord Knife, Skeleton Knife, Survival Knife), so one exact finish is 1 in 10,948. On average one of its knives costs about $1,325.49 in openings.

What are the drop rates in the Fever Case?

Mil-Spec Grade (blue) 79.92%, Restricted (purple) 15.98%, Classified (pink) 3.20%, Covert (red) 0.64%, Rare Special Item (gold) 0.26%. It contains 17 weapon skins and 28 knife finishes; each skin inside a rarity is equally likely, and eligible drops have a 10% StatTrak™ chance.

How much does it cost to open the Fever Case?

$3.39 per opening: $0.89 for the case and $2.50 for the key. Ten openings cost $33.90 and 100 cost $339.00; it is number 6 of 42 on the list of cheapest CS2 cases.

Is the Fever Case worth opening?

On average it returns $1.79 for every $3.39 opening, an ROI of 52.9% (rank 5 of 42 cases). About 5.2% of single openings return more than they cost. How it compares is on best CS2 cases to open.

What is the best item in the Fever Case?

By current Steam Market price, the most valuable possible drop is the StatTrak™ ★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) at about $1,025.16.

Trade up to Fever Case skins

Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.

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