droplabz
Revolution Case
Weapon case

Revolution Case Odds, Drops & ROI

Released 2023-01-31 · 17 skins · 24 rare-special
Case price
$0.38
Key price
$2.50
store price (not marketable)
Open cost
$2.88

Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.

Rarity odds

Mil-Spec Grade
79.92%
Restricted
15.985%
Classified
3.197%
Covert
0.639%
Rare Special Item
0.256%
Knife / glove0.256% · 1 in 391
Covert+0.895%
StatTrak roll10% on eligible items
Within a tiereach skin equally likely

Expected value

Expected return
$1.30
Expected profit
−$1.58
ROI
-54.8%
House edge
54.8%
Profit chance / open
4.9%
Price coverage
97%
Rare-special contribution$0.4468
StatTrak contribution$0.0176
Assumptions
  • Open cost = case price + key price (key not marketable → $2.50 store price).
  • Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
  • P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
  • Unpriced outcomes (3%) are excluded from the EV.
  • Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.

Rare special item pool

0.256% combined

24 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 9,384 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).

Covert

0.639% · 2 skins

Classified

3.197% · 3 skins

Restricted

15.985% · 5 skins

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92% · 7 skins

Revolution Case at a glance

The Revolution Case was released on 2023-01-31. One opening costs $2.88 ($0.38 for the case plus $2.50 for the key, the in-game store price since the key has no market listing), which ranks 2 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $1.30 per opening, a modeled ROI of 45.2% (12 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.

Open cost
$2.88
Expected return
$1.30
Modeled ROI
45.2%
Gold odds
0.256%
1 in 391
P(knife)
—
No knives
P(gloves)
0.256%
1 in 391
Rare-special pool
24
0 knife · 24 glove
Released
2023-01-31
Knife & glove families in this case

Gloves: Driver Gloves (4 finishes), Hand Wraps (4 finishes), Hydra Gloves (4 finishes), Moto Gloves (4 finishes), Specialist Gloves (4 finishes), Sport Gloves (4 finishes)

Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0107% per opening (1 in 9,384) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).

Open the Revolution Case in the simulatorCompare ROI across every caseAll glove casesKnife and glove odds by caseHow CS2 case odds workCase cost calculator

Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.

Most valuable skins in the Revolution Case

SkinRarityChance per openingSteam price by wear
M4A4 | TemukauCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$38.03 – $158.81
AK-47 | Head ShotCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$37.26 – $138.00
UMP-45 | Wild ChildClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$3.55 – $31.62
P2000 | Wicked SickClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$4.03 – $28.01
AWP | DualityClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$4.12 – $24.93
R8 Revolver | Banana CannonRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.52 – $5.91
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-SRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.62 – $4.30
Glock-18 | Umbral RabbitRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.57 – $3.92

The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.

Revolution Case gloves: cheapest and most expensive

Cheapest gloves

Most expensive gloves

Each of the 24 finishes has the same 1 in 9,384 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.

Revolution Case glove odds after N openings

Cases openedAt least one gloveOne specific finishCost
102.5%0.11%$28.80
5012.0%0.53%$144.00
10022.6%1.06%$288.00
25047.3%2.63%$720.00
50072.2%5.19%$1,440.00
1,00092.3%10.11%$2,880.00

0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $780.48 and $2,592.00 at today's $2.88 per opening).

Revolution Case: odds, cost and value

What are the glove odds in the Revolution Case?

0.26% per opening, or 1 in 391. The pool holds 24 finishes across 6 types (Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Hydra Gloves, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves), so one exact finish is 1 in 9,384. On average one of its gloves costs about $1,126.08 in openings.

What are the drop rates in the Revolution Case?

Mil-Spec Grade (blue) 79.92%, Restricted (purple) 15.98%, Classified (pink) 3.20%, Covert (red) 0.64%, Rare Special Item (gold) 0.26%. It contains 17 weapon skins and 24 glove finishes; each skin inside a rarity is equally likely, and eligible drops have a 10% StatTrak™ chance.

How much does it cost to open the Revolution Case?

$2.88 per opening: $0.38 for the case and $2.50 for the key. Ten openings cost $28.80 and 100 cost $288.00; it is number 2 of 42 on the list of cheapest CS2 cases.

Is the Revolution Case worth opening?

On average it returns $1.30 for every $2.88 opening, an ROI of 45.2% (rank 12 of 42 cases). About 4.9% of single openings return more than they cost. How it compares is on best CS2 cases to open.

What is the best item in the Revolution Case?

By current Steam Market price, the most valuable possible drop is the ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) at $1,854+. That is the Steam listing cap, so it trades for more elsewhere.

Trade up to Revolution Case skins

Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.

Compare this case

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