Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.
Rarity odds
Expected value
Assumptions
- Open cost = case price + key price (key not marketable → $2.50 store price).
- Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
- P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
- Unpriced outcomes (0%) are excluded from the EV.
- Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.
Rare special item pool
0.256% combined30 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 11,730 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).
Covert
0.639% · 2 skins
Classified
3.197% · 3 skins
Restricted
15.985% · 5 skins
Mil-Spec Grade
79.92% · 7 skins
Operation Riptide Case at a glance
The Operation Riptide Case was released on 2021-09-08. One opening costs $17.32 ($14.82 for the case plus $2.50 for the key, the in-game store price since the key has no market listing), which ranks 14 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $6.76 per opening, a modeled ROI of 39.0% (16 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.
Knives: Bowie Knife (6 finishes), Butterfly Knife (6 finishes), Falchion Knife (6 finishes), Huntsman Knife (6 finishes), Shadow Daggers (6 finishes)
Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0085% per opening (1 in 11,730) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).
Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.
Most valuable skins in the Operation Riptide Case
| Skin | Rarity | Chance per opening | Steam price by wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Leet Museo | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $93.97 – $755.63 |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $82.77 – $480.81 |
| Glock-18 | Snack Attack | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $18.82 – $227.76 |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $7.40 – $117.73 |
| MAC-10 | Toybox | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $18.94 – $112.98 |
| FAMAS | ZX Spectron | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $3.47 – $70.64 |
| USP-S | Black Lotus | Mil-Spec Grade | 11.418% · 1 in 8.8 | $0.98 – $66.41 |
| SSG 08 | Turbo Peek | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $22.41 – $51.05 |
The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.
Operation Riptide Case knives: cheapest and most expensive
Cheapest knives
- Shadow Daggers | Bright Waterfrom $45.00
- Shadow Daggers | Black Laminatefrom $52.69
- Shadow Daggers | Autotronicfrom $61.75
- Shadow Daggers | Freehandfrom $66.05
- Bowie Knife | Black Laminatefrom $71.68
- Shadow Daggers | Lorefrom $73.03
Most expensive knives
- Butterfly Knife | Gamma Dopplerfrom $1,840+
- Butterfly Knife | Autotronicfrom $957.80
- Butterfly Knife | Black Laminatefrom $850.00
- Butterfly Knife | Lorefrom $745.57
- Butterfly Knife | Freehandfrom $725.86
- Butterfly Knife | Bright Waterfrom $715.68
Each of the 30 finishes has the same 1 in 11,730 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.
Operation Riptide Case knife odds after N openings
| Cases opened | At least one knife | One specific finish | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.5% | 0.09% | $173.20 |
| 50 | 12.0% | 0.43% | $866.00 |
| 100 | 22.6% | 0.85% | $1,732.00 |
| 250 | 47.3% | 2.11% | $4,330.00 |
| 500 | 72.2% | 4.17% | $8,660.00 |
| 1,000 | 92.3% | 8.17% | $17,320.00 |
0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $4,693.72 and $15,588.00 at today's $17.32 per opening).
Operation Riptide Case: odds, cost and value
What are the knife odds in the Operation Riptide Case?
What are the drop rates in the Operation Riptide Case?
How much does it cost to open the Operation Riptide Case?
Is the Operation Riptide Case worth opening?
What is the best item in the Operation Riptide Case?
Trade up to Operation Riptide Case skins
Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.
- ★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic
- ★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate
- ★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water
- ★ Bowie Knife | Freehand
- ★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler
- ★ Bowie Knife | Lore
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore
- ★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic
- ★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate
- ★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water
- ★ Falchion Knife | Freehand
- ★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler
- ★ Falchion Knife | Lore
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Freehand
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Lore
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore
- AK-47 | Leet Museo
- Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive
- Glock-18 | Snack Attack
- MAC-10 | Toybox
- SSG 08 | Turbo Peek
- FAMAS | ZX Spectron
- Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol
- M4A4 | Spider Lily
- MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum
- MP9 | Mount Fuji
