XM1014 | Watchdog
XM1014 | Watchdog is a Mil-Spec Grade skin available from the Operation Riptide Case.
What case is this from?
Trade up from XM1014 | Watchdog
10 Mil-Spec Grade skins, this one included, trade up into one Restricted skin from the inputs' collections. From the Operation Riptide Case, the possible outcomes are:
XM1014 | Watchdog: drop odds, wear & source-case value
XM1014 | Watchdog is one of 7 Mil-Spec Grade skins in the Operation Riptide Case. The Operation Riptide Case pays out Mil-Spec Grade tier 79.923% of the time (1 in 1.3), and DropLabz's model treats every skin in a tier as equally likely, so this skin's base chance is about 11.418% per opening (1 in 8.8).
The base chance is the probability the opening lands on this skin at all, before its wear is rolled and before the 10% StatTrak roll (this skin is StatTrak-eligible). It is not the chance of a particular wear or a specific float.
| Wear | Chance, given this skin | Snapshot price | StatTrak price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 7.0% | $12.52 | $35.62 |
| Minimal Wear | 8.0% | $4.57 | $10.01 |
| Field-Tested | 23.0% | $2.57 | $5.31 |
| Well-Worn | 7.0% | $1.77 | $3.04 |
| Battle-Scarred | 55.0% | $1.73 | $2.85 |
Modeled wear chances assume uniform floats across the skin's range. They are not verified in-game wear rates; see the model assumptions and limitations. Prices are from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC; a dash means no price in the snapshot.
Related skins
More XM1014 skins · Best CS2 skins under $5 · Curious about the odds of pulling this? See Operation Riptide Case odds & contents or open it in the simulator.