- Cost
- $94.90
- EV
- 55%
- $52.19
- Profit
- −$49.52
- after fee
- Win %
- 20%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)5 outcomesActive market
Reverse trade-up finder
Trade up to M4A4 | Spider Lily
10 Mil-Spec Grade skins from the Operation Riptide Case collection can become M4A4 | Spider Lily. Pick a wear to see every realistic route, its odds, cost and the input float it needs.
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New M4A4 | Spider Lily needs an average normalized input float below 0.0700 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 20.0%.
- Cost
- $35.80
- EV
- 98%
- $35.18
- Profit
- −$5.21
- after fee
- Win %
- 24%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.068 (needs < 0.070)10 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $37.17
- EV
- 87%
- $32.22
- Profit
- −$9.16
- after fee
- Win %
- 20%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.069 (needs < 0.070)9 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $53.50
- EV
- 95%
- $50.77
- Profit
- −$9.35
- after fee
- Win %
- 30%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.067 (needs < 0.070)10 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $20.02
- EV
- 46%
- $9.13
- Profit
- −$12.08
- after fee
- Win %
- 8%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)10 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $66.46
- EV
- 78%
- $51.58
- Profit
- −$21.61
- after fee
- Win %
- 38%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)10 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each M4A4 | Spider Lily wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.0700 | $20.02 | 20.0% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0700 and < 0.1500 | $5.61 | 20.0% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1500 and < 0.3800 | $2.17 | 20.0% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.3800 and < 0.4500 | $1.64 | 20.0% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.4500 and any | $1.46 | 20.0% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 1.00.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.