Knife & gold odds

CS2 Knife Odds by Case

The odds of a knife in CS2 are 0.26% per case opening (1 in 391) in all 35 cases that contain knives. A knife is the "gold" Rare Special Item; 7 cases put gloves in that slot instead. The table below shows what every case can drop.

Knife odds per case

0.26%

1 in 391

Cases that drop knives

7 drop gloves instead

Knife types

8 glove types

One specific knife finish

1 in 5,083

best case; worst is 1 in 25,415

What is my chance after 50, 100 or 500 cases?

22.6% after 100 cases and 72.2% after 500. The knife chance calculator works it out for any number of openings and any target probability.

Knife chance calculator

Knife and glove odds for every CS2 case

Case	Knife odds	Glove odds	Gold pool	One specific finish	Open cost	Avg cost per gold
Kilowatt Case	0.256%	—	Kukri Knife · 13 finishes	1 in 5,083	$2.74	$1,071.34
Fracture Case	0.256%	—	Nomad Knife, Paracord Knife, Skeleton Knife, Survival Knife · 52 finishes	1 in 20,332	$3.28	$1,282.48
Fever Case	0.256%	—	Nomad Knife, Paracord Knife, Skeleton Knife, Survival Knife · 28 finishes	1 in 10,948	$3.39	$1,325.49
Gallery Case	0.256%	—	Kukri Knife · 13 finishes	1 in 5,083	$3.78	$1,477.98
Dreams & Nightmares Case	0.256%	—	Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, Falchion Knife, Huntsman Knife, Shadow Daggers · 30 finishes	1 in 11,730	$4.34	$1,696.94
Prisma 2 Case	0.256%	—	Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife, Ursus Knife · 28 finishes	1 in 10,948	$4.55	$1,779.05
Shattered Web Case	0.256%	—	Nomad Knife, Paracord Knife, Skeleton Knife, Survival Knife · 52 finishes	1 in 20,332	$10.33	$4,039.03
Revolver Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$17.18	$6,717.38
Operation Riptide Case	0.256%	—	Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, Falchion Knife, Huntsman Knife, Shadow Daggers · 30 finishes	1 in 11,730	$17.32	$6,772.12
Shadow Case	0.256%	—	Shadow Daggers · 13 finishes	1 in 5,083	$17.43	$6,815.13
Horizon Case	0.256%	—	Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife, Ursus Knife · 52 finishes	1 in 20,332	$18.14	$7,092.74
Prisma Case	0.256%	—	Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife, Ursus Knife · 28 finishes	1 in 10,948	$18.21	$7,120.11
Falchion Case	0.256%	—	Falchion Knife · 13 finishes	1 in 5,083	$19.19	$7,503.29
Chroma 2 Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 30 finishes	1 in 11,730	$21.44	$8,383.04
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$21.95	$8,582.45
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$22.27	$8,707.57
Spectrum 2 Case	0.256%	—	Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, Falchion Knife, Huntsman Knife, Shadow Daggers · 30 finishes	1 in 11,730	$22.43	$8,770.13
Danger Zone Case	0.256%	—	Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife, Ursus Knife · 52 finishes	1 in 20,332	$22.53	$8,809.23
Chroma Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 30 finishes	1 in 11,730	$22.55	$8,817.05
Operation Wildfire Case	0.256%	—	Bowie Knife · 13 finishes	1 in 5,083	$23.53	$9,200.23
Gamma 2 Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 30 finishes	1 in 11,730	$23.69	$9,262.79
Gamma Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 30 finishes	1 in 11,730	$23.95	$9,364.45
Spectrum Case	0.256%	—	Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, Falchion Knife, Huntsman Knife, Shadow Daggers · 30 finishes	1 in 11,730	$24.46	$9,563.86
CS20 Case	0.256%	—	Classic Knife · 13 finishes	1 in 5,083	$24.99	$9,771.09
CS:GO Weapon Case 3	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$26.80	$10,478.80
Winter Offensive Weapon Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$26.85	$10,498.35
Chroma 3 Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 30 finishes	1 in 11,730	$27.23	$10,646.93
Huntsman Weapon Case	0.256%	—	Huntsman Knife · 13 finishes	1 in 5,083	$27.48	$10,744.68
eSports 2014 Summer Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$36.05	$14,095.55
Operation Breakout Weapon Case	0.256%	—	Butterfly Knife · 13 finishes	1 in 5,083	$39.42	$15,413.22
eSports 2013 Winter Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$42.93	$16,785.63
CS:GO Weapon Case 2	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$44.84	$17,532.44
eSports 2013 Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$83.96	$32,828.36
Operation Bravo Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$96.53	$37,743.23
CS:GO Weapon Case	0.256%	—	Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet · 65 finishes	1 in 25,415	$184.28	$72,053.48
Clutch Case	—	0.256%	Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Hydra Gloves, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves · 24 finishes	1 in 9,384	$15.20	$5,943.20
Glove Case	—	0.256%	Bloodhound Gloves, Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves · 24 finishes	1 in 9,384	$38.69	$15,127.79
Operation Broken Fang Case	—	0.256%	Broken Fang Gloves, Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves · 24 finishes	1 in 9,384	$12.03	$4,703.73
Operation Hydra Case	—	0.256%	Bloodhound Gloves, Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves · 24 finishes	1 in 9,384	$46.35	$18,122.85
Recoil Case	—	0.256%	Broken Fang Gloves, Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves · 24 finishes	1 in 9,384	$2.97	$1,161.27
Revolution Case	—	0.256%	Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Hydra Gloves, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves · 24 finishes	1 in 9,384	$2.88	$1,126.08
Snakebite Case	—	0.256%	Broken Fang Gloves, Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves · 24 finishes	1 in 9,384	$3.24	$1,266.84

Knife cases first, cheapest opening first. "One specific finish" is the chance of one exact knife or glove finish, such as a Karambit | Fade: the gold chance split evenly across every finish in that case's pool (Doppler phases share one finish). Average cost per gold = open cost ÷ gold chance, using case + key prices from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026.

Knife odds explained

What are the odds of pulling a knife in CS2?

0.26% per opening, which is 1 in 391. It comes from Valve's published rarity rule: each rarity is 5× rarer than the one below it, and the Rare Special Item is 2.5× rarer than Covert. The other tiers are listed on CS2 case opening odds.

Which CS2 cases drop knives?

35 of the 42 weapon cases in DropLabz's dataset have knives in their gold pool. The other 7 (Clutch Case, Glove Case, Operation Broken Fang Case, Operation Hydra Case, Recoil Case, Revolution Case, Snakebite Case) have gloves only. No case in the dataset mixes the two, so a case is either a knife case or a glove case.To find the cases for one knife, open its page from the list of CS2 knife types.

Knife odds vs glove odds: which is higher?

They are the same. Knives and gloves both occupy the Rare Special Item slot, so a glove case gives gloves at 0.26% and a knife case gives a knife at 0.26%. See the cases that drop gloves or the glove types.

What are the gold odds in CS2?

"Gold" is the community name for the Rare Special Item, after the colour it shows in the opening reel. Gold odds are 0.26% (1 in 391) in every case with a gold pool. Whether that gold is a knife or gloves depends only on the case.

What are the odds of one specific knife?

The gold chance is split evenly across every finish in the case's pool, so smaller pools give better odds at any one knife. The best in the dataset is the Kilowatt Case with 13 finishes: 0.0197% (1 in 5,083) for one exact finish, before wear and StatTrak. Each knife page lists its odds per case, for example the Karambit or the Butterfly Knife.

Which case has the best knife odds?

None: the knife chance is identical in every knife case, so the difference is price. The cheapest knife case to open is the Kilowatt Case at $2.74 per opening, which works out to about $1,071.34 of openings per knife on average. The full ranking is on best CS2 cases for knives.

All 20 CS2 knife types

Bayonet · 16 cases
Bowie Knife · 5 cases
Butterfly Knife · 5 cases
Classic Knife · 1 case
Falchion Knife · 5 cases
Flip Knife · 16 cases
Gut Knife · 16 cases
Huntsman Knife · 5 cases
Karambit · 16 cases
Kukri Knife · 2 cases
M9 Bayonet · 16 cases
Navaja Knife · 4 cases
Nomad Knife · 3 cases
Paracord Knife · 3 cases
Shadow Daggers · 5 cases
Skeleton Knife · 3 cases
Stiletto Knife · 4 cases
Survival Knife · 3 cases
Talon Knife · 4 cases
Ursus Knife · 4 cases

Other ways to get a knife: knife and glove trade-ups (five Covert skins for one gold), or test your luck for free in the case opening simulator. Value rather than odds is on case ROI.