Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.
Rarity odds
Expected value
Assumptions
- Open cost = case price + key price.
- Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
- P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
- Unpriced outcomes (4%) are excluded from the EV.
- Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.
Rare special item pool
0.256% combined30 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 11,730 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).
Covert
0.639% · 2 skins
Classified
3.197% · 3 skins
Restricted
15.985% · 5 skins
Mil-Spec Grade
79.92% · 7 skins
Spectrum 2 Case at a glance
The Spectrum 2 Case was released on 2017-09-06. One opening costs $22.43 ($4.24 for the case plus $18.19 for the key), which ranks 22 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $3.40 per opening, a modeled ROI of 15.1% (38 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.
Knives: Bowie Knife (6 finishes), Butterfly Knife (6 finishes), Falchion Knife (6 finishes), Huntsman Knife (6 finishes), Shadow Daggers (6 finishes)
Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0085% per opening (1 in 11,730) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).
Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.
Most valuable skins in the Spectrum 2 Case
| Skin | Rarity | Chance per opening | Steam price by wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | The Empress | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $128.74 – $292.17 |
| P250 | See Ya Later | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $122.50 – $166.28 |
| M4A1-S | Leaded Glass | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $12.63 – $89.28 |
| R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $13.64 – $59.52 |
| PP-Bizon | High Roller | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $12.79 – $42.01 |
| Glock-18 | Off World | Mil-Spec Grade | 11.418% · 1 in 8.8 | $0.34 – $19.25 |
| MP9 | Goo | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $1.17 – $13.19 |
| CZ75-Auto | Tacticat | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $1.12 – $7.17 |
The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.
Spectrum 2 Case knives: cheapest and most expensive
Cheapest knives
- Shadow Daggers | Rust Coatfrom $53.58
- Shadow Daggers | Ultravioletfrom $60.22
- Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steelfrom $66.19
- Bowie Knife | Rust Coatfrom $71.21
- Huntsman Knife | Rust Coatfrom $72.08
- Huntsman Knife | Ultravioletfrom $84.68
Most expensive knives
- Butterfly Knife | Dopplerfrom $1,853+
- Butterfly Knife | Marble Fadefrom $1,753+
- Butterfly Knife | Tiger Toothfrom $1,534.63
- Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steelfrom $931.34
- Butterfly Knife | Rust Coatfrom $712.43
- Butterfly Knife | Ultravioletfrom $705.75
Each of the 30 finishes has the same 1 in 11,730 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.
Spectrum 2 Case knife odds after N openings
| Cases opened | At least one knife | One specific finish | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.5% | 0.09% | $224.30 |
| 50 | 12.0% | 0.43% | $1,121.50 |
| 100 | 22.6% | 0.85% | $2,243.00 |
| 250 | 47.3% | 2.11% | $5,607.50 |
| 500 | 72.2% | 4.17% | $11,215.00 |
| 1,000 | 92.3% | 8.17% | $22,430.00 |
0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $6,078.53 and $20,187.00 at today's $22.43 per opening).
Spectrum 2 Case: odds, cost and value
What are the knife odds in the Spectrum 2 Case?
What are the drop rates in the Spectrum 2 Case?
How much does it cost to open the Spectrum 2 Case?
Is the Spectrum 2 Case worth opening?
What is the best item in the Spectrum 2 Case?
Trade up to Spectrum 2 Case skins
Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.
- ★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel
- ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler
- ★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade
- ★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat
- ★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth
- ★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet
- ★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel
- ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler
- ★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade
- ★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat
- ★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth
- ★ Falchion Knife | Ultraviolet
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Rust Coat
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth
- ★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steel
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet
- AK-47 | The Empress
- P250 | See Ya Later
- M4A1-S | Leaded Glass
- PP-Bizon | High Roller
- R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon
- CZ75-Auto | Tacticat
- MP9 | Goo
- SG 553 | Phantom
- UMP-45 | Exposure
- XM1014 | Ziggy
