Expected value
CS2 Case ROI & Expected Value
The CS2 case with the best ROI right now is the Gallery Case: 67.4%, an expected return of $2.55 on a $3.78 opening. ROI and expected value (EV) for all 42 cases are in the sortable table below.
Its opening cost
$3.78
case + key
Its expected return
$2.55
modeled loss $1.23 per opening
Average case ROI
31.9%
lowest: CS20 Case at 10.2%
Prices: csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, updated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC. ROI = expected return ÷ opening cost, so 100% would be break-even.
Statistical estimate, not guaranteed returns. No case currently returns more than it costs to open on average (the average case gives back 32% of what you spend); a single opening almost always returns far less or far more than the average.
| Rare pool | Top possible pull | Simulate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gallery Case | $3.78 | $2.55 | -32.6% | 13 | ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) — $495.42 | Open |
 Snakebite Case | $3.24 | $2.04 | -37.2% | 24 | ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) — $1,550.00 | Open |
 Prisma 2 Case | $4.55 | $2.62 | -42.3% | 52 | StatTrak™ ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) — $1,865.47 | Open |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $44.84 | $25.53(91% priced) | -43.1% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Fever Case | $3.39 | $1.79 | -47.1% | 52 | StatTrak™ ★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) — $1,025.16 | Open |
 Operation Broken Fang Case | $12.03 | $5.98 | -50.3% | 24 | StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) — $1,676.37 | Open |
 Recoil Case | $2.97 | $1.46 | -50.7% | 24 | ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) — $1,550.00 | Open |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $26.80 | $13.00(91% priced) | -51.5% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Operation Hydra Case | $46.35 | $22.35(83% priced) | -51.8% | 24 | ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) — $1,874.38 | Open |
 Dreams & Nightmares Case | $4.34 | $2.06 | -52.6% | 50 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) — $1,851.93 | Open |
 Shattered Web Case | $10.33 | $4.79 | -53.7% | 52 | ★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) — $1,525.62 | Open |
 Revolution Case | $2.88 | $1.30 | -54.8% | 24 | ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) — $1,854.12 | Open |
 Kilowatt Case | $2.74 | $1.24 | -54.8% | 13 | ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) — $495.42 | Open |
 eSports 2013 Winter Case | $42.93 | $18.40(91% priced) | -57.1% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Fracture Case | $3.28 | $1.38 | -57.8% | 52 | ★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) — $1,525.62 | Open |
 Operation Riptide Case | $17.32 | $6.76 | -61.0% | 50 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) — $1,851.93 | Open |
 eSports 2014 Summer Case | $36.05 | $12.00(92% priced) | -66.7% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $26.85 | $8.91(91% priced) | -66.8% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $22.27 | $6.80(91% priced) | -69.5% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 CS:GO Weapon Case | $184.28 | $54.70(90% priced) | -70.3% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Glove Case | $38.69 | $10.00(83% priced) | -74.2% | 24 | ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) — $1,874.38 | Open |
 Huntsman Weapon Case | $27.48 | $7.05 | -74.3% | 13 | StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — $1,785.33 | Open |
 Operation Bravo Case | $96.53 | $24.45(91% priced) | -74.7% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Chroma Case | $22.55 | $5.39 | -76.1% | 60 | StatTrak™ ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) — $1,735.26 | Open |
 eSports 2013 Case | $83.96 | $19.35(90% priced) | -77.0% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Operation Wildfire Case | $23.53 | $5.36 | -77.2% | 13 | StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — $1,072.42 | Open |
 Chroma 2 Case | $21.44 | $4.67 | -78.2% | 60 | StatTrak™ ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) — $1,735.26 | Open |
 Revolver Case | $17.18 | $3.72(92% priced) | -78.4% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $21.95 | $4.51(91% priced) | -79.4% | 65 | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $1,876.88 | Open |
 Shadow Case | $17.43 | $3.46 | -80.1% | 13 | StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) — $1,143.87 | Open |
 Horizon Case | $18.14 | $3.34 | -81.6% | 52 | ★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) — $1,361.08 | Open |
 Gamma Case | $23.95 | $4.28 | -82.1% | 50 | StatTrak™ ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) — $1,840.12 | Open |
 Prisma Case | $18.21 | $3.16 | -82.6% | 52 | StatTrak™ ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) — $1,865.47 | Open |
 Falchion Case | $19.19 | $3.22 | -83.2% | 13 | StatTrak™ ★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) — $601.00 | Open |
 Spectrum Case | $24.46 | $4.09 | -83.3% | 60 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) — $1,854.14 | Open |
 Gamma 2 Case | $23.69 | $3.92 | -83.4% | 50 | StatTrak™ ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) — $1,840.12 | Open |
 Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $39.42 | $6.51 | -83.5% | 13 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) — $2,004.46 | Open |
 Spectrum 2 Case | $22.43 | $3.40 | -84.9% | 60 | ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) — $1,854.14 | Open |
 Chroma 3 Case | $27.23 | $3.98 | -85.4% | 60 | StatTrak™ ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) — $1,735.26 | Open |
 Danger Zone Case | $22.53 | $2.30 | -89.8% | 52 | ★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) — $1,361.08 | Open |
 Clutch Case | $15.20 | $1.55 | -89.8% | 24 | ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) — $1,854.12 | Open |
 CS20 Case | $24.99 | $2.54 | -89.8% | 13 | ★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) — $441.29 | Open |
ROI = expected return ÷ open cost, so a 90% ROI means each opening is modeled to return about $0.90 for every $1.00 spent on the case and key. Expected return (case EV) excludes unpriced (skin, wear) outcomes — a case with low price coverage shows a coverage note next to its expected value. Key prices use the $2.50 in-game store price when a key isn't marketable on Steam. Knives and gloves listed at the Steam Market's price cap are valued at that cap, which understates expected return for cases whose pools include them. See a case's own page for the full per-tier breakdown and assumptions.
Looking for a shortlist? See the best cases to open by modeled ROI or the cheapest cases to open. Want raw probabilities instead of dollar value? See CS2 case odds or the case cost calculator.
CS2 case ROI and EV: common questions
What is CS2 case ROI?
The share of your opening cost a case returns on average: expected return ÷ (case price + key price). A case with 67% ROI is modeled to give back about $0.67 in skin value for every $1.00 spent opening it, averaged over a very large number of openings.
What is case expected value (EV)?
The average market value of what one opening drops. DropLabz computes it analytically, not by sampling: every possible skin, wear and StatTrak outcome is weighted by its probability from the CS2 case opening odds and priced from the Steam market snapshot.
Which CS2 case has the best ROI?
In the current snapshot it is the Gallery Case at 67.4%: $2.55 expected back on a $3.78 opening. Next are the Snakebite Case (62.8%) and the Prisma 2 Case (57.7%). The order moves with market prices; the ranked shortlist is on best CS2 cases to open.
Is opening CS2 cases profitable?
Not on average. None of the 42 priced cases has an ROI above 100%; the range runs from 67.4% down to 10.2% (CS20 Case). Individual openings can still profit, because most of a case's value sits in rare drops. Per-case profit chance is on each case page, and the bulk simulator shows the spread over thousands of openings.