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Chroma 3 Case
Weapon case

Chroma 3 Case Odds, Drops & ROI

Released 2016-04-19 · 17 skins · 60 rare-special
Case price
$4.93
Key price
$22.30
Open cost
$27.23

Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.

Rarity odds

Mil-Spec Grade
79.92%
Restricted
15.985%
Classified
3.197%
Covert
0.639%
Rare Special Item
0.256%
Knife / glove0.256% · 1 in 391
Covert+0.895%
StatTrak roll10% on eligible items
Within a tiereach skin equally likely

Expected value

Expected return
$3.98
Expected profit
−$23.25
ROI
-85.4%
House edge
85.4%
Profit chance / open
1.5%
Price coverage
98%
Rare-special contribution$1.42
StatTrak contribution$0.0085
Assumptions
  • Open cost = case price + key price.
  • Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
  • P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
  • Unpriced outcomes (2%) are excluded from the EV.
  • Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.

Rare special item pool

0.256% combined

30 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 11,730 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).

Covert

0.639% · 2 skins

Classified

3.197% · 3 skins

Restricted

15.985% · 5 skins

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92% · 7 skins

Chroma 3 Case at a glance

The Chroma 3 Case was released on 2016-04-19. One opening costs $27.23 ($4.93 for the case plus $22.30 for the key), which ranks 32 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $3.98 per opening, a modeled ROI of 14.6% (39 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.

Open cost
$27.23
Expected return
$3.98
Modeled ROI
14.6%
Gold odds
0.256%
1 in 391
P(knife)
0.256%
1 in 391
P(gloves)
—
No gloves
Rare-special pool
60
60 knife · 0 glove
Released
2016-04-19
Knife & glove families in this case

Knives: Bayonet (6 finishes), Flip Knife (6 finishes), Gut Knife (6 finishes), Karambit (6 finishes), M9 Bayonet (6 finishes)

Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0085% per opening (1 in 11,730) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).

Open the Chroma 3 Case in the simulatorCompare ROI across every caseKnife chance calculatorKnife and glove odds by caseHow CS2 case odds workCase cost calculator

Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.

Most valuable skins in the Chroma 3 Case

SkinRarityChance per openingSteam price by wear
M4A1-S | Chantico's FireCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$144.48 – $374.69
PP-Bizon | Judgement of AnubisCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$138.00 – $171.20
P250 | AsiimovClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$14.01 – $63.97
AUG | Fleet FlockClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$14.40 – $48.63
SSG 08 | Ghost CrusaderRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$1.32 – $28.68
UMP-45 | Primal SaberClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$13.46 – $28.35
Galil AR | FirefightRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$1.39 – $28.13
Tec-9 | Re-EntryRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$1.61 – $14.48

The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.

Chroma 3 Case knives: cheapest and most expensive

Cheapest knives

Most expensive knives

Each of the 30 finishes has the same 1 in 11,730 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.

Chroma 3 Case knife odds after N openings

Cases openedAt least one knifeOne specific finishCost
102.5%0.09%$272.30
5012.0%0.43%$1,361.50
10022.6%0.85%$2,723.00
25047.3%2.11%$6,807.50
50072.2%4.17%$13,615.00
1,00092.3%8.17%$27,230.00

0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $7,379.33 and $24,507.00 at today's $27.23 per opening).

Chroma 3 Case: odds, cost and value

What are the knife odds in the Chroma 3 Case?

0.26% per opening, or 1 in 391. The pool holds 30 finishes across 5 types (Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet), so one exact finish is 1 in 11,730. On average one of its knives costs about $10,646.93 in openings.

What are the drop rates in the Chroma 3 Case?

Mil-Spec Grade (blue) 79.92%, Restricted (purple) 15.98%, Classified (pink) 3.20%, Covert (red) 0.64%, Rare Special Item (gold) 0.26%. It contains 17 weapon skins and 30 knife finishes; each skin inside a rarity is equally likely, and eligible drops have a 10% StatTrak™ chance.

How much does it cost to open the Chroma 3 Case?

$27.23 per opening: $4.93 for the case and $22.30 for the key. Ten openings cost $272.30 and 100 cost $2,723.00; it is number 32 of 42 on the list of cheapest CS2 cases.

Is the Chroma 3 Case worth opening?

On average it returns $3.98 for every $27.23 opening, an ROI of 14.6% (rank 39 of 42 cases). About 1.5% of single openings return more than they cost. How it compares is on best CS2 cases to open.

What is the best item in the Chroma 3 Case?

By current Steam Market price, the most valuable possible drop is the StatTrak™ ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) at $1,735+. That is the Steam listing cap, so it trades for more elsewhere.

Trade up to Chroma 3 Case skins

Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.

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