- Cost
- $702.56
- EV
- 79%
- $556.47
- Profit
- −$218.67
- after fee
- Win %
- 23%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.780 (needs < 0.875)60 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Bayonet | Marble Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The Bayonet | Marble Fade starts at $478.21 on the Steam Market and drops from 3 cases, at best 1 in 11,730 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$478.21
Factory New
Drops from
3 cases
Chroma 2 Case
Best drop odds
1 in 11,730
0.0085% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$251,491.20
in the Chroma 2 Case
Bayonet | Marble Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $478.21 | $800.00 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | $549.07 | — | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $478.21; unboxing this exact finish costs about $251,491.20 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Bayonet | Marble Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chroma 2 Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $21.44 | $251,491.20 |
| Chroma Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $22.55 | $264,511.50 |
| Chroma 3 Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $27.23 | $319,407.90 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Bayonet | Marble Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Bayonet | Marble Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 3.3%.
- Cost
- $281.20
- EV
- 81%
- $228.99
- Profit
- −$82.08
- after fee
- Win %
- 11%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.762 (needs < 0.875)43 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $287.48
- EV
- 80%
- $230.03
- Profit
- −$87.45
- after fee
- Win %
- 11%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.652 (needs < 0.875)43 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $438.24
- EV
- 101%
- $442.82
- Profit
- −$53.18
- after fee
- Win %
- 33%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)95 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $444.52
- EV
- 100%
- $442.82
- Profit
- −$59.46
- after fee
- Win %
- 31%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.570 (needs < 0.875)95 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $452.01
- EV
- 98%
- $442.82
- Profit
- −$66.95
- after fee
- Win %
- 28%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)95 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Bayonet | Marble Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $281.20 | 3.3% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | $346.00 | 3.3% |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.