- Cost
- $1,278
- EV
- 47%
- $596.48
- Profit
- −$759.55
- after fee
- Win %
- 7%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.078 (needs < 0.083)60 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat: price, cases and trade-ups
The M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat starts at $412.36 on the Steam Market and drops from 3 cases, at best 1 in 11,730 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$412.36
StatTrak™ Well-Worn
Drops from
3 cases
Chroma 2 Case
Best drop odds
1 in 11,730
0.0085% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$251,491.20
in the Chroma 2 Case
M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Well-Worn | $612.73 | $412.36 | 8.3% |
| Battle-Scarred | $490.71 | $459.51 | 91.7% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $412.36; unboxing this exact finish costs about $251,491.20 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chroma 2 Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $21.44 | $251,491.20 |
| Chroma Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $22.55 | $264,511.50 |
| Chroma 3 Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $27.23 | $319,407.90 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Well-Worn ★ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat needs an average normalized input float below 0.0833 (output float 0.400–0.450). Best chance per contract: 3.3%.
- Cost
- $721.80
- EV
- 39%
- $279.49
- Profit
- −$478.76
- after fee
- Win %
- 7%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.082 (needs < 0.083)82 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $727.12
- EV
- 45%
- $324.33
- Profit
- −$445.10
- after fee
- Win %
- 8%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.068 (needs < 0.083)58 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $813.92
- EV
- 53%
- $435.18
- Profit
- −$435.50
- after fee
- Win %
- 19%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.082 (needs < 0.083)60 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $830.48
- EV
- 51%
- $421.47
- Profit
- −$463.99
- after fee
- Win %
- 12%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.068 (needs < 0.083)54 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $850.92
- EV
- 51%
- $433.44
- Profit
- −$474.02
- after fee
- Win %
- 12%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.083 (needs < 0.083)54 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.40–1.00 float range | |||
| Minimal Wear | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.40–1.00 float range | |||
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.40–1.00 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | 0.400–0.450 | < 0.0833 | $721.80 | 3.3% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.0833 and any | $278.48 | 3.3% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.40 + average × 0.60.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.