- Cost
- $702.56
- EV
- 79%
- $556.47
- Profit
- −$218.67
- after fee
- Win %
- 23%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.780 (needs < 0.875)60 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
M9 Bayonet | Doppler: price, cases and trade-ups
The M9 Bayonet | Doppler starts at $1,000.68 on the Steam Market and drops from 3 cases, at best 1 in 11,730 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$1,000.68
Minimal Wear
Drops from
3 cases
Chroma 2 Case
Best drop odds
1 in 11,730
0.0085% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$251,491.20
in the Chroma 2 Case
M9 Bayonet | Doppler price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $1,385.15 | $1,360.85 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | $1,000.68 | — | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $1,000.68; unboxing this exact finish costs about $251,491.20 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the M9 Bayonet | Doppler
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chroma 2 Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $21.44 | $251,491.20 |
| Chroma Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $22.55 | $264,511.50 |
| Chroma 3 Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $27.23 | $319,407.90 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
M9 Bayonet | Doppler phases
| Phase | Share of drops | Odds in the Chroma 2 Case |
|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 | 22.5% | 1 in 52,133 |
| Phase 2 | 22.5% | 1 in 52,133 |
| Phase 3 | 22.5% | 1 in 52,133 |
| Phase 4 | 22.5% | 1 in 52,133 |
| Ruby | 4.0% | 1 in 293,250 |
| Sapphire | 4.0% | 1 in 293,250 |
| Black Pearl | 2.0% | 1 in 586,500 |
Valve has never published phase odds. These shares are the usual community estimate from unboxing samples, and Steam lists every phase under one market name, so the prices above are not per phase.
Trade up to the M9 Bayonet | Doppler
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 3.3%.
- Cost
- $281.20
- EV
- 81%
- $228.99
- Profit
- −$82.08
- after fee
- Win %
- 11%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.762 (needs < 0.875)43 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $287.48
- EV
- 80%
- $230.03
- Profit
- −$87.45
- after fee
- Win %
- 11%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.652 (needs < 0.875)43 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $438.24
- EV
- 101%
- $442.82
- Profit
- −$53.18
- after fee
- Win %
- 33%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)95 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $444.52
- EV
- 100%
- $442.82
- Profit
- −$59.46
- after fee
- Win %
- 31%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.570 (needs < 0.875)95 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $452.01
- EV
- 98%
- $442.82
- Profit
- −$66.95
- after fee
- Win %
- 28%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)95 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $281.20 | 3.3% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | $346.00 | 3.3% |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.