Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.
Rarity odds
Expected value
Assumptions
- Open cost = case price + key price.
- Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
- P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
- Unpriced outcomes (4%) are excluded from the EV.
- Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.
Rare special item pool
0.256% combined13 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 5,083 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).
Covert
0.639% · 2 skins
Classified
3.197% · 3 skins
Restricted
15.985% · 5 skins
Mil-Spec Grade
79.92% · 6 skins
Operation Wildfire Case at a glance
The Operation Wildfire Case was released on 2016-01-19. One opening costs $23.53 ($5.10 for the case plus $18.43 for the key), which ranks 25 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $5.36 per opening, a modeled ROI of 22.8% (26 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.
Knives: Bowie Knife (13 finishes)
Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0197% per opening (1 in 5,083) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).
Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.
Most valuable skins in the Operation Wildfire Case
| Skin | Rarity | Chance per opening | Steam price by wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $137.65 – $648.27 |
| M4A4 | The Battlestar | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $35.80 – $152.00 |
| AWP | Elite Build | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $16.30 – $135.36 |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $24.33 – $123.09 |
| Five-SeveN | Triumvirate | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $2.38 – $88.65 |
| Glock-18 | Royal Legion | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $3.11 – $76.87 |
| FAMAS | Valence | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $4.05 – $58.08 |
| Nova | Hyper Beast | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $15.67 – $40.91 |
The 8 priciest of the case's 16 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.
Operation Wildfire Case knives: cheapest and most expensive
Cheapest knives
- Bowie Knife | Boreal Forestfrom $67.59
- Bowie Knife | Safari Meshfrom $71.49
- Bowie Knife | Urban Maskedfrom $72.82
- Bowie Knife | Forest DDPATfrom $73.22
- Bowie Knife | Scorchedfrom $75.67
- Bowie Knife | Nightfrom $82.89
Most expensive knives
- Bowie Knife | Fadefrom $306.56
- Bowie Knife | Slaughterfrom $241.03
- Bowie Knife | Case Hardenedfrom $212.00
- Bowie Knifefrom $139.10
- Bowie Knife | Crimson Webfrom $134.25
- Bowie Knife | Blue Steelfrom $114.51
Each of the 13 finishes has the same 1 in 5,083 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.
Operation Wildfire Case knife odds after N openings
| Cases opened | At least one knife | One specific finish | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.5% | 0.20% | $235.30 |
| 50 | 12.0% | 0.98% | $1,176.50 |
| 100 | 22.6% | 1.95% | $2,353.00 |
| 250 | 47.3% | 4.80% | $5,882.50 |
| 500 | 72.2% | 9.37% | $11,765.00 |
| 1,000 | 92.3% | 17.86% | $23,530.00 |
0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $6,376.63 and $21,177.00 at today's $23.53 per opening).
Operation Wildfire Case: odds, cost and value
What are the knife odds in the Operation Wildfire Case?
What are the drop rates in the Operation Wildfire Case?
How much does it cost to open the Operation Wildfire Case?
Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?
What is the best item in the Operation Wildfire Case?
Trade up to Operation Wildfire Case skins
Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.
- ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
- ★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
- ★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
- ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
- ★ Bowie Knife | Fade
- ★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
- ★ Bowie Knife | Night
- ★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
- ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched
- ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
- ★ Bowie Knife | Stained
- ★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
- AK-47 | Fuel Injector
- M4A4 | The Battlestar
- AWP | Elite Build
- Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon
- Nova | Hyper Beast
- FAMAS | Valence
- Five-SeveN | Triumvirate
- Glock-18 | Royal Legion
- MAG-7 | Praetorian
- MP7 | Impire
