Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Aug 8, 2026, 06:46 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.
Rarity odds
Mil-Spec Grade
79.92%
Restricted
15.985%
Classified
3.197%
Covert
0.639%
Rare Special Item
0.256%
Knife / glove0.256% · 1 in 391
Covert+0.895%
StatTrak roll10% on eligible items
Within a tiereach skin equally likely
Expected value
Expected return
$5.48
Expected profit
−$21.41
ROI
-79.6%
House edge
79.6%
Profit chance / open
3.5%
Price coverage
96%
Rare-special contribution$0.4621
StatTrak contribution$0.2608
Assumptions
- Open cost = case price + key price.
- Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
- P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
- Unpriced outcomes (4%) are excluded from the EV.
- Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.
Rare special item pool
0.256% combined13 items share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 5,083 for any single one.