- Cost
- $3,241
- EV
- 6%
- $189.41
- Profit
- −$3,077
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)13 outcomesThin / unstable prices
Knife finish
Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: price, cases and trade-ups
The Bowie Knife | Blue Steel starts at $114.51 on the Steam Market and drops from 1 case, at best 1 in 5,083 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from that case; the routes are below.
Price from
$114.51
Well-Worn
Drops from
1 case
Operation Wildfire Case
Best drop odds
1 in 5,083
0.0197% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$119,602.99
in the Operation Wildfire Case
Bowie Knife | Blue Steel price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $376.56 | — | 7.0% |
| Minimal Wear | $181.39 | $225.17 | 8.0% |
| Field-Tested | $143.43 | $205.46 | 23.0% |
| Well-Worn | $114.51 | $185.10 | 7.0% |
| Battle-Scarred | $128.00 | $168.95 | 55.0% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $114.51; unboxing this exact finish costs about $119,602.99 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operation Wildfire Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $23.53 | $119,602.99 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel needs an average normalized input float below 0.0700 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 7.7%.
- Cost
- $1,097
- EV
- 22%
- $242.91
- Profit
- −$885.68
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)41 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $1,125
- EV
- 13%
- $151.63
- Profit
- −$993.58
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $1,200
- EV
- 28%
- $340.05
- Profit
- −$904.57
- after fee
- Win %
- 3%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)37 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $1,256
- EV
- 26%
- $329.67
- Profit
- −$969.40
- after fee
- Win %
- 5%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)43 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $1,266
- EV
- 41%
- $515.07
- Profit
- −$818.03
- after fee
- Win %
- 5%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)43 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.0700 | $1,096.91 | 7.7% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0700 and < 0.1500 | $503.86 | 7.7% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1500 and < 0.3800 | $378.66 | 7.7% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.3800 and < 0.4500 | $317.67 | 7.7% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.4500 and any | $176.28 | 7.7% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 1.00.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.