- Cost
- $179.00
- EV
- 82%
- $147.12
- Profit
- −$51.07
- after fee
- Win %
- 31%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.703 (needs < 0.875)13 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Bowie Knife | Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The Bowie Knife | Fade starts at $306.56 on the Steam Market and drops from 1 case, at best 1 in 5,083 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from that case; the routes are below.
Price from
$306.56
Factory New
Drops from
1 case
Operation Wildfire Case
Best drop odds
1 in 5,083
0.0197% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$119,602.99
in the Operation Wildfire Case
Bowie Knife | Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $306.56 | $324.04 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | $364.72 | — | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $306.56; unboxing this exact finish costs about $119,602.99 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Bowie Knife | Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operation Wildfire Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $23.53 | $119,602.99 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Bowie Knife | Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Bowie Knife | Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 7.7%.
- Cost
- $180.71
- EV
- 81%
- $146.26
- Profit
- −$53.53
- after fee
- Win %
- 28%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.762 (needs < 0.875)37 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $183.90
- EV
- 82%
- $151.42
- Profit
- −$52.23
- after fee
- Win %
- 29%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.743 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $196.85
- EV
- 84%
- $164.71
- Profit
- −$53.62
- after fee
- Win %
- 26%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.743 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $177.64
- EV
- 73%
- $130.02
- Profit
- −$64.57
- after fee
- Win %
- 22%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.822 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $336.04
- EV
- 107%
- $359.91
- Profit
- −$23.08
- after fee
- Win %
- 34%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.621 (needs < 0.875)78 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Bowie Knife | Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $177.64 | 7.7% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.