MAC-10 | Lapis Gator
MAC-10 | Lapis Gator is a Mil-Spec Grade skin available from the Operation Wildfire Case.
What case is this from?
Trade up from MAC-10 | Lapis Gator
10 Mil-Spec Grade skins, this one included, trade up into one Restricted skin from the inputs' collections. From the Operation Wildfire Case, the possible outcomes are:
MAC-10 | Lapis Gator: drop odds, wear & source-case value
MAC-10 | Lapis Gator is one of 6 Mil-Spec Grade skins in the Operation Wildfire Case. The Operation Wildfire Case pays out Mil-Spec Grade tier 79.923% of the time (1 in 1.3), and DropLabz's model treats every skin in a tier as equally likely, so this skin's base chance is about 13.321% per opening (1 in 7.5).
The base chance is the probability the opening lands on this skin at all, before its wear is rolled and before the 10% StatTrak roll (this skin is StatTrak-eligible). It is not the chance of a particular wear or a specific float.
| Wear | Chance, given this skin | Snapshot price | StatTrak price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 14.0% | $5.04 | $5.04 |
| Minimal Wear | 16.0% | $2.22 | $2.31 |
| Field-Tested | 46.0% | $1.30 | $1.56 |
| Well-Worn | 14.0% | $1.09 | $1.11 |
| Battle-Scarred | 10.0% | $1.08 | $1.14 |
Modeled wear chances assume uniform floats across the skin's range. They are not verified in-game wear rates; see the model assumptions and limitations. Prices are from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC; a dash means no price in the snapshot.
Related skins
More MAC-10 skins · MAC-10 skins under $5 · Best CS2 skins under $5 · Curious about the odds of pulling this? See Operation Wildfire Case odds & contents or open it in the simulator.