- Cost
- $823.35
- EV
- 70%
- $575.14
- Profit
- −$323.23
- after fee
- Win %
- 23%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)30 outcomesActive market
Knife finish
M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel: price, cases and trade-ups
The M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel starts at $475.05 on the Steam Market and drops from 3 cases, at best 1 in 11,730 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$475.05
StatTrak™ Well-Worn
Drops from
3 cases
Chroma 2 Case
Best drop odds
1 in 11,730
0.0085% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$251,491.20
in the Chroma 2 Case
M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $757.92 | $630.25 | 14.0% |
| Minimal Wear | $628.22 | — | 16.0% |
| Field-Tested | $642.19 | $500.02 | 46.0% |
| Well-Worn | $563.96 | $475.05 | 14.0% |
| Battle-Scarred | — | — | 10.0% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $475.05; unboxing this exact finish costs about $251,491.20 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chroma 2 Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $21.44 | $251,491.20 |
| Chroma Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $22.55 | $264,511.50 |
| Chroma 3 Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $27.23 | $319,407.90 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel needs an average normalized input float below 0.1400 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 3.3%.
- Cost
- $1,091
- EV
- 77%
- $837.82
- Profit
- −$362.29
- after fee
- Win %
- 24%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)43 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $446.14
- EV
- 47%
- $207.60
- Profit
- −$265.62
- after fee
- Win %
- 7%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.134 (needs < 0.140)43 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $489.27
- EV
- 66%
- $321.17
- Profit
- −$209.99
- after fee
- Win %
- 17%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)82 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $506.21
- EV
- 62%
- $315.15
- Profit
- −$232.16
- after fee
- Win %
- 13%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.134 (needs < 0.140)58 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $639.55
- EV
- 77%
- $491.66
- Profit
- −$212.02
- after fee
- Win %
- 22%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)95 outcomesActive market
Required input float for each ★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.1400 | $446.14 | 3.3% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.1400 and < 0.3000 | $355.54 | 3.3% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.3000 and < 0.7600 | $282.77 | 3.3% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.7600 and < 0.9000 | $328.46 (StatTrak™) | 3.3% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–0.500 | ≥ 0.9000 and any | $346.00 | 3.3% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.50.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.