Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.
Rarity odds
Expected value
Assumptions
- Open cost = case price + key price (key not marketable → $2.50 store price).
- Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
- P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
- Unpriced outcomes (0%) are excluded from the EV.
- Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.
Rare special item pool
0.256% combined13 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 5,083 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).
Covert
0.639% · 2 skins
Classified
3.197% · 3 skins
Restricted
15.985% · 5 skins
Mil-Spec Grade
79.92% · 7 skins
Kilowatt Case at a glance
The Kilowatt Case was released on 2024-01-16. One opening costs $2.74 ($0.24 for the case plus $2.50 for the key, the in-game store price since the key has no market listing), which ranks 1 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $1.24 per opening, a modeled ROI of 45.2% (13 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.
Knives: Kukri Knife (13 finishes)
Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0197% per opening (1 in 5,083) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).
Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.
Most valuable skins in the Kilowatt Case
| Skin | Rarity | Chance per opening | Steam price by wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Inheritance | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $46.09 – $171.61 |
| AWP | Chrome Cannon | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $35.12 – $119.29 |
| USP-S | Jawbreaker | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $4.41 – $38.90 |
| M4A1-S | Black Lotus | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $6.14 – $21.44 |
| Zeus x27 | Olympus | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $4.57 – $12.63 |
| M4A4 | Etch Lord | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $0.54 – $10.17 |
| Five-SeveN | Hybrid | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $0.53 – $6.05 |
| MP7 | Just Smile | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $0.52 – $5.73 |
The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.
Kilowatt Case knives: cheapest and most expensive
Cheapest knives
- Kukri Knife | Safari Meshfrom $54.37
- Kukri Knife | Boreal Forestfrom $56.96
- Kukri Knife | Forest DDPATfrom $59.49
- Kukri Knife | Scorchedfrom $62.64
- Kukri Knife | Urban Maskedfrom $64.98
- Kukri Knife | Night Stripefrom $65.80
Most expensive knives
- Kukri Knife | Fadefrom $255.87
- Kukri Knife | Slaughterfrom $179.79
- Kukri Knifefrom $137.30
- Kukri Knife | Case Hardenedfrom $129.84
- Kukri Knife | Blue Steelfrom $108.83
- Kukri Knife | Crimson Webfrom $89.64
Each of the 13 finishes has the same 1 in 5,083 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.
Kilowatt Case knife odds after N openings
| Cases opened | At least one knife | One specific finish | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.5% | 0.20% | $27.40 |
| 50 | 12.0% | 0.98% | $137.00 |
| 100 | 22.6% | 1.95% | $274.00 |
| 250 | 47.3% | 4.80% | $685.00 |
| 500 | 72.2% | 9.37% | $1,370.00 |
| 1,000 | 92.3% | 17.86% | $2,740.00 |
0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $742.54 and $2,466.00 at today's $2.74 per opening).
Kilowatt Case: odds, cost and value
What are the knife odds in the Kilowatt Case?
What are the drop rates in the Kilowatt Case?
How much does it cost to open the Kilowatt Case?
Is the Kilowatt Case worth opening?
What is the best item in the Kilowatt Case?
Trade up to Kilowatt Case skins
Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.
- ★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel
- ★ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest
- ★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened
- ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web
- ★ Kukri Knife | Fade
- ★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT
- ★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe
- ★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh
- ★ Kukri Knife | Scorched
- ★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter
- ★ Kukri Knife | Stained
- ★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked
- AK-47 | Inheritance
- AWP | Chrome Cannon
- M4A1-S | Black Lotus
- USP-S | Jawbreaker
- Zeus x27 | Olympus
- Five-SeveN | Hybrid
- Glock-18 | Block-18
- M4A4 | Etch Lord
- MP7 | Just Smile
- Sawed-Off | Analog Input
