- Cost
- $178.46
- EV
- 58%
- $104.38
- Profit
- −$87.69
- after fee
- Win %
- 8%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.780 (needs < 0.875)13 outcomesActive market
Knife finish
Kukri Knife | Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The Kukri Knife | Fade starts at $255.87 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 5,083 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$255.87
Factory New
Drops from
2 cases
Kilowatt Case
Best drop odds
1 in 5,083
0.0197% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$13,927.42
in the Kilowatt Case
Kukri Knife | Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $255.87 | $289.70 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | $266.96 | $266.44 | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $255.87; unboxing this exact finish costs about $13,927.42 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Kukri Knife | Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilowatt Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $2.74 | $13,927.42 |
| Gallery Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $3.78 | $19,213.74 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Kukri Knife | Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Kukri Knife | Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 7.7%.
- Cost
- $177.64
- EV
- 73%
- $130.02
- Profit
- −$64.57
- after fee
- Win %
- 22%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.822 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $183.54
- EV
- 76%
- $138.57
- Profit
- −$63.04
- after fee
- Win %
- 26%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.686 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $199.35
- EV
- 78%
- $155.77
- Profit
- −$63.90
- after fee
- Win %
- 14%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.810 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $335.36
- EV
- 105%
- $351.36
- Profit
- −$29.83
- after fee
- Win %
- 34%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)78 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $340.58
- EV
- 103%
- $351.36
- Profit
- −$35.05
- after fee
- Win %
- 34%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.603 (needs < 0.875)78 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Kukri Knife | Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $177.64 | 7.7% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.