Weapon case

Falchion Case Odds, Drops & ROI

Release date unknown · 16 skins · 13 rare-special

Case price

$2.46

Key price

$16.73

Open cost

$19.19

Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.

Rarity odds

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92%

Restricted

15.985%

Classified

3.197%

Covert

0.639%

Rare Special Item

0.256%

Knife / glove0.256% · 1 in 391

Covert+0.895%

StatTrak roll10% on eligible items

Within a tiereach skin equally likely

Expected value

Expected return

$3.22

Expected profit

−$15.97

ROI

-83.2%

House edge

83.2%

Profit chance / open

2.9%

Price coverage

96%

Rare-special contribution$0.3889

StatTrak contribution$0.1419

Assumptions

Open cost = case price + key price.
Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
Unpriced outcomes (4%) are excluded from the EV.
Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.

Rare special item pool

0.256% combined

13 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 5,083 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).

★ Falchion Knife

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

float 0.00–0.08ST★ eligibleFade

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

float 0.01–0.26ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligibleCase Hardened

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Night

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

Covert

0.639% · 2 skins

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.320%

AWP | Hyper Beast

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.320%

Classified

3.197% · 3 skins

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

1.066%

MP7 | Nemesis

float 0.00–0.32ST★ eligible

no price

1.066%

SG 553 | Cyrex

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

1.066%

Restricted

15.985% · 5 skins

FAMAS | Neural Net

float 0.00–0.60ST★ eligible

no price

3.197%

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

float 0.00–0.52ST★ eligible

no price

3.197%

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

float 0.00–0.50ST★ eligible

no price

3.197%

Negev | Loudmouth

float 0.14–0.65ST★ eligible

no price

3.197%

P2000 | Handgun

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

3.197%

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92% · 6 skins

Galil AR | Rocket Pop

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

13.321%

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner

float 0.00–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

13.321%

Nova | Ranger

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

13.321%

P90 | Elite Build

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

13.321%

UMP-45 | Riot

float 0.00–0.70ST★ eligible

no price

13.321%

USP-S | Torque

float 0.00–0.46ST★ eligible

no price

13.321%

Falchion Case at a glance

One opening costs $19.19 ($2.46 for the case plus $16.73 for the key), which ranks 18 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $3.22 per opening, a modeled ROI of 16.8% (34 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.

Open cost

$19.19

Expected return

$3.22

Modeled ROI

16.8%

Gold odds

0.256%

1 in 391

P(knife)

0.256%

1 in 391

P(gloves)

—

No gloves

Rare-special pool

13 knife · 0 glove

Released

—

Knife & glove families in this case

Knives: Falchion Knife (13 finishes)

Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0197% per opening (1 in 5,083) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).

Open the Falchion Case in the simulator Compare ROI across every case Knife chance calculator Knife and glove odds by case How CS2 case odds work Case cost calculator

Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.

Most valuable skins in the Falchion Case

Skin	Rarity	Chance per opening	Steam price by wear
AWP \| Hyper Beast	Covert	0.320% · 1 in 313	$43.24 – $258.54
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge	Covert	0.320% · 1 in 313	$40.51 – $251.75
SG 553 \| Cyrex	Classified	1.066% · 1 in 93.8	$4.89 – $45.98
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket	Classified	1.066% · 1 in 93.8	$5.13 – $38.67
MP7 \| Nemesis	Classified	1.066% · 1 in 93.8	$9.29 – $31.73
P2000 \| Handgun	Restricted	3.197% · 1 in 31.3	$0.93 – $29.29
Negev \| Loudmouth	Restricted	3.197% · 1 in 31.3	$1.21 – $25.82
FAMAS \| Neural Net	Restricted	3.197% · 1 in 31.3	$1.43 – $22.60

The 8 priciest of the case's 16 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.

Falchion Case knives: cheapest and most expensive

Cheapest knives

Falchion Knife | Safari Meshfrom $78.34
Falchion Knife | Boreal Forestfrom $80.94
Falchion Knife | Forest DDPATfrom $82.12
Falchion Knife | Scorchedfrom $82.20
Falchion Knife | Urban Maskedfrom $84.30
Falchion Knife | Nightfrom $91.86

Most expensive knives

Falchion Knife | Fadefrom $293.51
Falchion Knife | Slaughterfrom $264.03
Falchion Knife | Case Hardenedfrom $176.02
Falchion Knifefrom $170.16
Falchion Knife | Crimson Webfrom $149.49
Falchion Knife | Blue Steelfrom $134.15

Each of the 13 finishes has the same 1 in 5,083 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.

Falchion Case knife odds after N openings

Cases opened	At least one knife	One specific finish	Cost
10	2.5%	0.20%	$191.90
50	12.0%	0.98%	$959.50
100	22.6%	1.95%	$1,919.00
250	47.3%	4.80%	$4,797.50
500	72.2%	9.37%	$9,595.00
1,000	92.3%	17.86%	$19,190.00

0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)^N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $5,200.49 and $17,271.00 at today's $19.19 per opening).

Falchion Case: odds, cost and value

What are the knife odds in the Falchion Case?

0.26% per opening, or 1 in 391. The pool holds 13 finishes across 1 type (Falchion Knife), so one exact finish is 1 in 5,083. On average one of its knives costs about $7,503.29 in openings.

What are the drop rates in the Falchion Case?

Mil-Spec Grade (blue) 79.92%, Restricted (purple) 15.98%, Classified (pink) 3.20%, Covert (red) 0.64%, Rare Special Item (gold) 0.26%. It contains 16 weapon skins and 13 knife finishes; each skin inside a rarity is equally likely, and eligible drops have a 10% StatTrak™ chance.

How much does it cost to open the Falchion Case?

$19.19 per opening: $2.46 for the case and $16.73 for the key. Ten openings cost $191.90 and 100 cost $1,919.00; it is number 18 of 42 on the list of cheapest CS2 cases.

Is the Falchion Case worth opening?

On average it returns $3.22 for every $19.19 opening, an ROI of 16.8% (rank 34 of 42 cases). About 2.9% of single openings return more than they cost. How it compares is on best CS2 cases to open.

What is the best item in the Falchion Case?

By current Steam Market price, the most valuable possible drop is the StatTrak™ ★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) at about $601.00.

Trade up to Falchion Case skins

Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.

Related cases