- Cost
- $208.01
- EV
- 67%
- $138.68
- Profit
- −$87.42
- after fee
- Win %
- 15%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.780 (needs < 0.875)13 outcomesActive market
Knife finish
Falchion Knife | Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The Falchion Knife | Fade starts at $293.51 on the Steam Market and drops from 1 case, at best 1 in 5,083 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from that case; the routes are below.
Price from
$293.51
Factory New
Drops from
1 case
Falchion Case
Best drop odds
1 in 5,083
0.0197% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$97,542.77
in the Falchion Case
Falchion Knife | Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $293.51 | $374.68 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | $322.00 | — | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $293.51; unboxing this exact finish costs about $97,542.77 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Falchion Knife | Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falchion Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $19.19 | $97,542.77 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Falchion Knife | Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Falchion Knife | Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 7.7%.
- Cost
- $183.71
- EV
- 79%
- $145.43
- Profit
- −$57.25
- after fee
- Win %
- 28%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.762 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $199.11
- EV
- 71%
- $141.99
- Profit
- −$75.64
- after fee
- Win %
- 16%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.804 (needs < 0.875)37 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $205.97
- EV
- 79%
- $162.63
- Profit
- −$64.55
- after fee
- Win %
- 15%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.864 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $257.78
- EV
- 84%
- $215.79
- Profit
- −$70.13
- after fee
- Win %
- 20%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.863 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $340.75
- EV
- 105%
- $358.22
- Profit
- −$29.26
- after fee
- Win %
- 34%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)78 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Falchion Knife | Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $183.71 | 7.7% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT★ Falchion Knife | Night★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh★ Falchion Knife | Scorched★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter★ Falchion Knife | Stained★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.