- Cost
- $1,259
- EV
- 16%
- $201.07
- Profit
- −$1,084
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)13 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Falchion Knife | Case Hardened: price, cases and trade-ups
The Falchion Knife | Case Hardened starts at $176.02 on the Steam Market and drops from 1 case, at best 1 in 5,083 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from that case; the routes are below.
Price from
$176.02
Battle-Scarred
Drops from
1 case
Falchion Case
Best drop odds
1 in 5,083
0.0197% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$97,542.77
in the Falchion Case
Falchion Knife | Case Hardened price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $384.05 | — | 7.0% |
| Minimal Wear | $207.96 | $300.00 | 8.0% |
| Field-Tested | $248.43 | $259.16 | 23.0% |
| Well-Worn | $253.01 | $220.64 | 7.0% |
| Battle-Scarred | $176.02 | $216.63 | 55.0% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $176.02; unboxing this exact finish costs about $97,542.77 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Falchion Knife | Case Hardened
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falchion Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $19.19 | $97,542.77 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Falchion Knife | Case Hardened
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened needs an average normalized input float below 0.0700 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 7.7%.
- Cost
- $700.39
- EV
- 35%
- $245.25
- Profit
- −$487.13
- after fee
- Win %
- 3%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)41 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $728.91
- EV
- 21%
- $153.96
- Profit
- −$595.03
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $803.75
- EV
- 43%
- $342.39
- Profit
- −$506.02
- after fee
- Win %
- 7%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)37 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $859.55
- EV
- 39%
- $332.00
- Profit
- −$570.85
- after fee
- Win %
- 11%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)43 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $1,138
- EV
- 47%
- $532.96
- Profit
- −$674.07
- after fee
- Win %
- 13%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)43 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.0700 | $700.39 | 7.7% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0700 and < 0.1500 | $289.19 | 7.7% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1500 and < 0.3800 | $213.39 | 7.7% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.3800 and < 0.4500 | $189.44 | 7.7% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.4500 and any | $180.99 | 7.7% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 1.00.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web★ Falchion Knife | Fade★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT★ Falchion Knife | Night★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh★ Falchion Knife | Scorched★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter★ Falchion Knife | Stained★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.