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CS:GO Weapon Case
Weapon case

CS:GO Weapon Case Odds, Drops & ROI

Released 2013-09-20 · 9 skins · 65 rare-special
Case price
$175.66
Key price
$8.62
Open cost
$184.28

Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.

Rarity odds

Mil-Spec Grade
79.92%
Restricted
15.985%
Classified
3.197%
Covert
0.639%
Rare Special Item
0.256%
Knife / glove0.256% · 1 in 391
Covert+0.895%
StatTrak roll10% on eligible items
Within a tiereach skin equally likely

Expected value

Expected return
$54.70
Expected profit
−$129.58
ROI
-70.3%
House edge
70.3%
Profit chance / open
4.7%
Price coverage
90%
Rare-special contribution$1.09
StatTrak contribution$2.44
Assumptions
  • Open cost = case price + key price.
  • Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
  • P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
  • Unpriced outcomes (10%) are excluded from the EV.
  • Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.

Rare special item pool

0.256% combined

65 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 25,415 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).

Covert

0.639% · 1 skins

Classified

3.197% · 2 skins

Restricted

15.985% · 3 skins

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92% · 3 skins

CS:GO Weapon Case at a glance

The CS:GO Weapon Case was released on 2013-09-20. One opening costs $184.28 ($175.66 for the case plus $8.62 for the key), which ranks 42 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $54.70 per opening, a modeled ROI of 29.7% (20 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.

Open cost
$184.28
Expected return
$54.70
Modeled ROI
29.7%
Gold odds
0.256%
1 in 391
P(knife)
0.256%
1 in 391
P(gloves)
—
No gloves
Rare-special pool
65
65 knife · 0 glove
Released
2013-09-20
Knife & glove families in this case

Knives: Bayonet (13 finishes), Flip Knife (13 finishes), Gut Knife (13 finishes), Karambit (13 finishes), M9 Bayonet (13 finishes)

Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0039% per opening (1 in 25,415) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).

Open the CS:GO Weapon Case in the simulatorCompare ROI across every caseKnife chance calculatorKnife and glove odds by caseHow CS2 case odds workCase cost calculator

Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.

Most valuable skins in the CS:GO Weapon Case

SkinRarityChance per openingSteam price by wear
AK-47 | Case HardenedClassified1.598% · 1 in 62.6$285.18 – $724.94
AWP | Lightning StrikeCovert0.639% · 1 in 156$663.01 – $702.00
Desert Eagle | HypnoticClassified1.598% · 1 in 62.6$273.96 – $289.05
Glock-18 | Dragon TattooRestricted5.328% · 1 in 18.8$153.50 – $156.53
M4A1-S | Dark WaterRestricted5.328% · 1 in 18.8$95.73 – $145.55
USP-S | Dark WaterRestricted5.328% · 1 in 18.8$102.07 – $130.00
SG 553 | UltravioletMil-Spec Grade26.641% · 1 in 3.8$19.58 – $80.68
AUG | WingsMil-Spec Grade26.641% · 1 in 3.8$21.83 – $23.52

The 8 priciest of the case's 9 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.

CS:GO Weapon Case knives: cheapest and most expensive

Cheapest knives

Most expensive knives

Each of the 65 finishes has the same 1 in 25,415 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.

CS:GO Weapon Case knife odds after N openings

Cases openedAt least one knifeOne specific finishCost
102.5%0.04%$1,842.80
5012.0%0.20%$9,214.00
10022.6%0.39%$18,428.00
25047.3%0.98%$46,070.00
50072.2%1.95%$92,140.00
1,00092.3%3.86%$184,280.00

0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $49,939.88 and $165,852.00 at today's $184.28 per opening).

CS:GO Weapon Case: odds, cost and value

What are the knife odds in the CS:GO Weapon Case?

0.26% per opening, or 1 in 391. The pool holds 65 finishes across 5 types (Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit, M9 Bayonet), so one exact finish is 1 in 25,415. On average one of its knives costs about $72,053.48 in openings.

What are the drop rates in the CS:GO Weapon Case?

Mil-Spec Grade (blue) 79.92%, Restricted (purple) 15.98%, Classified (pink) 3.20%, Covert (red) 0.64%, Rare Special Item (gold) 0.26%. It contains 9 weapon skins and 65 knife finishes; each skin inside a rarity is equally likely, and eligible drops have a 10% StatTrak™ chance.

How much does it cost to open the CS:GO Weapon Case?

$184.28 per opening: $175.66 for the case and $8.62 for the key. Ten openings cost $1,842.80 and 100 cost $18,428.00; it is number 42 of 42 on the list of cheapest CS2 cases.

Is the CS:GO Weapon Case worth opening?

On average it returns $54.70 for every $184.28 opening, an ROI of 29.7% (rank 20 of 42 cases). About 4.7% of single openings return more than they cost. How it compares is on best CS2 cases to open.

What is the best item in the CS:GO Weapon Case?

By current Steam Market price, the most valuable possible drop is the ★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) at $1,876+. That is the Steam listing cap, so it trades for more elsewhere.

Trade up to CS:GO Weapon Case skins

Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.

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