- Cost
- $375.30
- EV
- 110%
- $413.10
- Profit
- −$16.08
- after fee
- Win %
- 37%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.600 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
M9 Bayonet | Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The M9 Bayonet | Fade starts at $1,486.00 on the Steam Market and drops from 11 cases, at best 1 in 25,415 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Rare Special ItemFloat range 0.00–0.08CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case 2CS:GO Weapon Case 3eSports 2013 CaseeSports 2013 Winter CaseeSports 2014 Summer CaseOperation Bravo CaseOperation Phoenix Weapon CaseOperation Vanguard Weapon CaseRevolver CaseWinter Offensive Weapon CaseAll M9 Bayonet finishes
Price from
$1,486.00
Factory New
Drops from
11 cases
Revolver Case
Best drop odds
1 in 25,415
0.0039% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$436,629.70
in the Revolver Case
M9 Bayonet | Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $1,486.00 | $1,604.37 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | — | — | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $1,486.00; unboxing this exact finish costs about $436,629.70 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the M9 Bayonet | Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revolver Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $17.18 | $436,629.70 |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $21.95 | $557,859.25 |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $22.27 | $565,992.05 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $26.80 | $681,122.00 |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $26.85 | $682,392.75 |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $36.05 | $916,210.75 |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $42.93 | $1,091,065.95 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $44.84 | $1,139,608.60 |
| eSports 2013 Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $83.96 | $2,133,843.40 |
| Operation Bravo Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $96.53 | $2,453,309.95 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $184.28 | $4,683,476.20 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the M9 Bayonet | Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 1.5%.
- Cost
- $336.04
- EV
- 107%
- $359.91
- Profit
- −$23.08
- after fee
- Win %
- 34%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.621 (needs < 0.875)78 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $337.75
- EV
- 106%
- $359.05
- Profit
- −$25.54
- after fee
- Win %
- 35%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)89 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $340.94
- EV
- 107%
- $364.21
- Profit
- −$24.24
- after fee
- Win %
- 36%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.660 (needs < 0.875)78 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $358.63
- EV
- 106%
- $381.71
- Profit
- −$26.71
- after fee
- Win %
- 37%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.556 (needs < 0.875)93 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $216.97
- EV
- 77%
- $166.12
- Profit
- −$72.51
- after fee
- Win %
- 17%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.810 (needs < 0.875)78 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $216.97 | 1.5% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | $298.76 | 1.5% |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.