- Cost
- $500.26
- EV
- 86%
- $428.68
- Profit
- −$127.50
- after fee
- Win %
- 25%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.424 (needs < 0.432)130 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Bayonet | Scorched: price, cases and trade-ups
The Bayonet | Scorched starts at $167.07 on the Steam Market and drops from 11 cases, at best 1 in 25,415 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$167.07
StatTrak™ Battle-Scarred
Drops from
11 cases
Revolver Case
Best drop odds
1 in 25,415
0.0039% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$436,629.70
in the Revolver Case
Bayonet | Scorched price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | — | 1.4% |
| Minimal Wear | $197.17 | $251.91 | 10.8% |
| Field-Tested | $177.87 | $190.12 | 31.1% |
| Well-Worn | $176.97 | $176.22 | 9.5% |
| Battle-Scarred | $170.86 | $167.07 | 47.3% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $167.07; unboxing this exact finish costs about $436,629.70 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Bayonet | Scorched
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revolver Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $17.18 | $436,629.70 |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $21.95 | $557,859.25 |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $22.27 | $565,992.05 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $26.80 | $681,122.00 |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $26.85 | $682,392.75 |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $36.05 | $916,210.75 |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $42.93 | $1,091,065.95 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $44.84 | $1,139,608.60 |
| eSports 2013 Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $83.96 | $2,133,843.40 |
| Operation Bravo Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $96.53 | $2,453,309.95 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | 0.0039% · 1 in 25,415 | 65 | $184.28 | $4,683,476.20 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Bayonet | Scorched
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Field-Tested ★ Bayonet | Scorched needs an average normalized input float of at least 0.1216 and below 0.4324 (output float 0.150–0.380). Best chance per contract: 1.5%.
- Cost
- $294.21
- EV
- 95%
- $278.22
- Profit
- −$52.28
- after fee
- Win %
- 24%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.420 (needs < 0.432)78 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $340.29
- EV
- 92%
- $314.45
- Profit
- −$66.86
- after fee
- Win %
- 28%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.420 (needs < 0.432)117 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $240.94
- EV
- 72%
- $173.54
- Profit
- −$90.03
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.424 (needs < 0.432)78 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $278.38
- EV
- 88%
- $244.98
- Profit
- −$65.35
- after fee
- Win %
- 20%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.424 (needs < 0.432)89 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $308.62
- EV
- 92%
- $282.65
- Profit
- −$62.83
- after fee
- Win %
- 24%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.424 (needs < 0.432)93 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Bayonet | Scorched wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.060–0.070 | < 0.0135 | no priced route | — |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0135 and < 0.1216 | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1216 and < 0.4324 | $240.94 | 1.5% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.4324 and < 0.5270 | no priced route | — |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–0.800 | ≥ 0.5270 and any | $230.59 | 1.5% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.06 + average × 0.74.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.