M4A1-S | Dark Water
M4A1-S | Dark Water is a Restricted skin available from the CS:GO Weapon Case.
What case is this from?
Trade up to M4A1-S | Dark Water
10 Mil-Spec Grade skins from the CS:GO Weapon Case collection can produce it. See every route, its odds and the input float each wear needs.
Trade up from M4A1-S | Dark Water
10 Restricted skins, this one included, trade up into one Classified skin from the inputs' collections. From the CS:GO Weapon Case, the possible outcomes are:
M4A1-S | Dark Water: drop odds, wear & source-case value
M4A1-S | Dark Water is one of 3 Restricted skins in the CS:GO Weapon Case. The CS:GO Weapon Case pays out Restricted tier 15.985% of the time (1 in 6.3), and DropLabz's model treats every skin in a tier as equally likely, so this skin's base chance is about 5.328% per opening (1 in 18.8).
The base chance is the probability the opening lands on this skin at all, before its wear is rolled and before the 10% StatTrak roll (this skin is StatTrak-eligible). It is not the chance of a particular wear or a specific float.
| Wear | Chance, given this skin | Snapshot price | StatTrak price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | 31.2% | $145.55 | $170.59 |
| Field-Tested | 68.8% | $95.73 | $154.58 |
Modeled wear chances assume uniform floats across the skin's range. They are not verified in-game wear rates; see the model assumptions and limitations. Prices are from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC; a dash means no price in the snapshot.
Related skins
More M4A1-S skins · M4A1-S skins under $100 · Best CS2 skins under $100 · Curious about the odds of pulling this? See CS:GO Weapon Case odds & contents or open it in the simulator.