- Cost
- $217.80
- EV
- 66%
- $144.03
- Profit
- −$92.56
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.308 (needs < 0.313)3 outcomesSome thin prices
Reverse trade-up finder
Trade up to M4A1-S | Dark Water
10 Mil-Spec Grade skins from the CS:GO Weapon Case collection can become M4A1-S | Dark Water. Pick a wear to see every realistic route, its odds, cost and the input float it needs.
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Minimal Wear M4A1-S | Dark Water needs an average normalized input float below 0.3125 (output float 0.100–0.150). Best chance per contract: 33.3%.
- Cost
- $98.95
- EV
- 73%
- $72.44
- Profit
- −$35.96
- after fee
- Win %
- 50%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.312 (needs < 0.313)8 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $19.85
- EV
- 75%
- $14.95
- Profit
- −$6.85
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.310 (needs < 0.313)8 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $19.90
- EV
- 75%
- $14.95
- Profit
- −$6.90
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.309 (needs < 0.313)8 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $19.93
- EV
- 76%
- $15.17
- Profit
- −$6.74
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.309 (needs < 0.313)8 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $20.04
- EV
- 75%
- $15.02
- Profit
- −$6.98
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.312 (needs < 0.313)8 outcomesActive market
Required input float for each M4A1-S | Dark Water wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.10–0.26 float range | |||
| Minimal Wear | 0.100–0.150 | < 0.3125 | $19.85 | 33.3% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.260 | ≥ 0.3125 and any | $19.02 | 33.3% |
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.10–0.26 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.10–0.26 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.10 + average × 0.16.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.