- Cost
- $2,740
- EV
- 24%
- $663.01
- Profit
- −$2,163
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.875 (needs < 0.875)1 outcomesSome thin prices
Reverse trade-up finder
Trade up to AWP | Lightning Strike
10 Classified skins from the CS:GO Weapon Case collection can become AWP | Lightning Strike. Pick a wear to see every realistic route, its odds, cost and the input float it needs.
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New AWP | Lightning Strike needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 100.0%.
- Cost
- $308.30
- EV
- 32%
- $100.18
- Profit
- −$221.19
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.871 (needs < 0.875)3 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $321.39
- EV
- 37%
- $120.04
- Profit
- −$217.01
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.492 (needs < 0.875)3 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $333.97
- EV
- 40%
- $134.88
- Profit
- −$216.68
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.872 (needs < 0.875)3 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $395.10
- EV
- 54%
- $211.55
- Profit
- −$211.14
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.613 (needs < 0.875)3 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $401.34
- EV
- 53%
- $211.55
- Profit
- −$217.39
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.875 (needs < 0.875)3 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each AWP | Lightning Strike wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $308.30 | 100.0% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | $303.33 (StatTrak™) | 100.0% |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.