Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.
Rarity odds
Expected value
Assumptions
- Open cost = case price + key price.
- Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
- P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
- Unpriced outcomes (17%) are excluded from the EV.
- Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.
Rare special item pool
0.256% combined24 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 9,384 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).
Covert
0.639% · 2 skins
Classified
3.197% · 3 skins
Restricted
15.985% · 5 skins
Mil-Spec Grade
79.92% · 7 skins
Operation Hydra Case at a glance
The Operation Hydra Case was released on 2017-04-21. One opening costs $46.35 ($43.51 for the case plus $2.84 for the key), which ranks 39 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $22.35 per opening, a modeled ROI of 48.2% (9 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.
Gloves: Bloodhound Gloves (4 finishes), Driver Gloves (4 finishes), Hand Wraps (4 finishes), Moto Gloves (4 finishes), Specialist Gloves (4 finishes), Sport Gloves (4 finishes)
Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0107% per opening (1 in 9,384) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).
Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.
Most valuable skins in the Operation Hydra Case
| Skin | Rarity | Chance per opening | Steam price by wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Oni Taiji | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $384.74 – $1,120.51 |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast | Covert | 0.320% · 1 in 313 | $299.00 – $611.91 |
| M4A4 | Hellfire | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $105.86 – $492.11 |
| Galil AR | Sugar Rush | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $58.85 – $246.50 |
| Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike | Classified | 1.066% · 1 in 93.8 | $59.82 – $235.44 |
| USP-S | Blueprint | Mil-Spec Grade | 11.418% · 1 in 8.8 | $4.36 – $163.44 |
| AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 | Restricted | 3.197% · 1 in 31.3 | $34.13 – $132.68 |
| M4A1-S | Briefing | Mil-Spec Grade | 11.418% · 1 in 8.8 | $5.30 – $120.36 |
The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.
Operation Hydra Case gloves: cheapest and most expensive
Cheapest gloves
- Driver Gloves | Convoyfrom $82.66
- Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebitefrom $93.98
- Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzedfrom $94.19
- Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrillafrom $102.45
- Moto Gloves | Boom!from $109.77
- Moto Gloves | Eclipsefrom $118.30
Most expensive gloves
- Sport Gloves | Hedge Mazefrom $1,874+
- Sport Gloves | Pandora's Boxfrom $1,849+
- Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimonofrom $1,774+
- Sport Gloves | Superconductorfrom $1,287.58
- Specialist Gloves | Emerald Webfrom $506.58
- Moto Gloves | Spearmintfrom $491.56
Each of the 24 finishes has the same 1 in 9,384 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.
Operation Hydra Case glove odds after N openings
| Cases opened | At least one glove | One specific finish | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.5% | 0.11% | $463.50 |
| 50 | 12.0% | 0.53% | $2,317.50 |
| 100 | 22.6% | 1.06% | $4,635.00 |
| 250 | 47.3% | 2.63% | $11,587.50 |
| 500 | 72.2% | 5.19% | $23,175.00 |
| 1,000 | 92.3% | 10.11% | $46,350.00 |
0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $12,560.85 and $41,715.00 at today's $46.35 per opening).
Operation Hydra Case: odds, cost and value
What are the glove odds in the Operation Hydra Case?
What are the drop rates in the Operation Hydra Case?
How much does it cost to open the Operation Hydra Case?
Is the Operation Hydra Case worth opening?
What is the best item in the Operation Hydra Case?
Trade up to Operation Hydra Case skins
Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.
- ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed
- ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred
- ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla
- ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite
- ★ Driver Gloves | Convoy
- ★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave
- ★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback
- ★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave
- ★ Hand Wraps | Badlands
- ★ Hand Wraps | Leather
- ★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter
- ★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT
- ★ Moto Gloves | Boom!
- ★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint
- ★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse
- ★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint
- ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono
- ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web
- ★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT
- ★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation
- ★ Sport Gloves | Arid
- ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze
- ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box
- ★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor
- AWP | Oni Taiji
- Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast
- Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike
- Galil AR | Sugar Rush
- M4A4 | Hellfire
- AK-47 | Orbit Mk01
- P2000 | Woodsman
- P250 | Red Rock
- P90 | Death Grip
- SSG 08 | Death's Head
