- Cost
- $425.50
- EV
- 53%
- $227.60
- Profit
- −$227.59
- after fee
- Win %
- 33%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.138 (needs < 0.140)3 outcomesSome thin prices
Reverse trade-up finder
Trade up to M4A4 | Hellfire
10 Restricted skins from the Operation Hydra Case collection can become M4A4 | Hellfire. Pick a wear to see every realistic route, its odds, cost and the input float it needs.
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New M4A4 | Hellfire needs an average normalized input float below 0.1400 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 33.3%.
- Cost
- $37.91
- EV
- 85%
- $32.14
- Profit
- −$9.96
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.139 (needs < 0.140)6 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $38.69
- EV
- 80%
- $30.82
- Profit
- −$11.89
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)6 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $40.65
- EV
- 80%
- $32.35
- Profit
- −$12.52
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)6 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $42.09
- EV
- 73%
- $30.78
- Profit
- −$15.33
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)6 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $154.16
- EV
- 77%
- $119.04
- Profit
- −$50.64
- after fee
- Win %
- 33%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)6 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each M4A4 | Hellfire wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.1400 | $37.91 | 33.3% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.1400 and < 0.3000 | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.3000 and < 0.7600 | $21.01 | 33.3% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.7600 and < 0.9000 | no priced route | — |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–0.500 | ≥ 0.9000 and any | no priced route | — |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.50.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.