Weapon case

Shadow Case Odds, Drops & ROI

Release date unknown · 16 skins · 13 rare-special

Case price

$2.57

Key price

$14.86

Open cost

$17.43

Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.

Rarity odds

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92%

Restricted

15.985%

Classified

3.197%

Covert

0.639%

Rare Special Item

0.256%

Knife / glove0.256% · 1 in 391

Covert+0.895%

StatTrak roll10% on eligible items

Within a tiereach skin equally likely

Expected value

Expected return

$3.46

Expected profit

−$13.97

ROI

-80.1%

House edge

80.1%

Profit chance / open

4.0%

Price coverage

97%

Rare-special contribution$0.2381

StatTrak contribution$0.1689

Assumptions

Open cost = case price + key price.
Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
Unpriced outcomes (3%) are excluded from the EV.
Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.

Rare special item pool

0.256% combined

13 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 5,083 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).

★ Shadow Daggers

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade

float 0.00–0.08ST★ eligibleFade

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

float 0.01–0.26ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligibleCase Hardened

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Night

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Stained

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

float 0.06–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

0.020%

Covert

0.639% · 2 skins

M4A1-S | Golden Coil

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.320%

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

0.320%

Classified

3.197% · 3 skins

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

float 0.02–0.87ST★ eligible

no price

1.066%

G3SG1 | Flux

float 0.00–0.90ST★ eligible

no price

1.066%

SSG 08 | Big Iron

float 0.00–0.64ST★ eligible

no price

1.066%

Restricted

15.985% · 4 skins

Galil AR | Stone Cold

float 0.00–0.90ST★ eligible

no price

3.996%

M249 | Nebula Crusader

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

3.996%

MP7 | Special Delivery

float 0.00–0.62ST★ eligible

no price

3.996%

P250 | Wingshot

float 0.00–0.90ST★ eligible

no price

3.996%

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92% · 7 skins

Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

11.418%

FAMAS | Survivor Z

float 0.00–0.60ST★ eligible

no price

11.418%

Glock-18 | Wraiths

float 0.00–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

11.418%

MAC-10 | Rangeen

float 0.00–0.50ST★ eligible

no price

11.418%

MAG-7 | Cobalt Core

float 0.00–0.50ST★ eligible

no price

11.418%

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

float 0.00–0.80ST★ eligible

no price

11.418%

XM1014 | Scumbria

float 0.00–1.00ST★ eligible

no price

11.418%

Shadow Case at a glance

One opening costs $17.43 ($2.57 for the case plus $14.86 for the key), which ranks 15 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $3.46 per opening, a modeled ROI of 19.9% (30 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.

Open cost

$17.43

Expected return

$3.46

Modeled ROI

19.9%

Gold odds

0.256%

1 in 391

P(knife)

0.256%

1 in 391

P(gloves)

—

No gloves

Rare-special pool

13 knife · 0 glove

Released

—

Knife & glove families in this case

Knives: Shadow Daggers (13 finishes)

Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0197% per opening (1 in 5,083) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).

Open the Shadow Case in the simulator Compare ROI across every case Knife chance calculator Knife and glove odds by case How CS2 case odds work Case cost calculator

Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.

Most valuable skins in the Shadow Case

Skin	Rarity	Chance per opening	Steam price by wear
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil	Covert	0.320% · 1 in 313	$69.91 – $372.11
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed	Covert	0.320% · 1 in 313	$74.48 – $369.49
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty	Classified	1.066% · 1 in 93.8	$18.92 – $192.83
SSG 08 \| Big Iron	Classified	1.066% · 1 in 93.8	$10.63 – $62.64
Galil AR \| Stone Cold	Restricted	3.996% · 1 in 25.0	$2.59 – $61.28
G3SG1 \| Flux	Classified	1.066% · 1 in 93.8	$8.05 – $45.51
P250 \| Wingshot	Restricted	3.996% · 1 in 25.0	$1.81 – $23.79
Glock-18 \| Wraiths	Mil-Spec Grade	11.418% · 1 in 8.8	$0.71 – $17.66

The 8 priciest of the case's 16 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.

Shadow Case knives: cheapest and most expensive

Cheapest knives

Shadow Daggers | Safari Meshfrom $51.15
Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forestfrom $52.83
Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPATfrom $54.44
Shadow Daggers | Scorchedfrom $54.82
Shadow Daggers | Urban Maskedfrom $55.61
Shadow Daggers | Nightfrom $59.28

Most expensive knives

Shadow Daggers | Fadefrom $200.58
Shadow Daggers | Slaughterfrom $146.35
Shadow Daggers | Case Hardenedfrom $110.08
Shadow Daggersfrom $96.77
Shadow Daggers | Crimson Webfrom $83.66
Shadow Daggers | Blue Steelfrom $69.40

Each of the 13 finishes has the same 1 in 5,083 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.

Shadow Case knife odds after N openings

Cases opened	At least one knife	One specific finish	Cost
10	2.5%	0.20%	$174.30
50	12.0%	0.98%	$871.50
100	22.6%	1.95%	$1,743.00
250	47.3%	4.80%	$4,357.50
500	72.2%	9.37%	$8,715.00
1,000	92.3%	17.86%	$17,430.00

0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)^N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $4,723.53 and $15,687.00 at today's $17.43 per opening).

Shadow Case: odds, cost and value

What are the knife odds in the Shadow Case?

0.26% per opening, or 1 in 391. The pool holds 13 finishes across 1 type (Shadow Daggers), so one exact finish is 1 in 5,083. On average one of its knives costs about $6,815.13 in openings.

What are the drop rates in the Shadow Case?

Mil-Spec Grade (blue) 79.92%, Restricted (purple) 15.98%, Classified (pink) 3.20%, Covert (red) 0.64%, Rare Special Item (gold) 0.26%. It contains 16 weapon skins and 13 knife finishes; each skin inside a rarity is equally likely, and eligible drops have a 10% StatTrak™ chance.

How much does it cost to open the Shadow Case?

$17.43 per opening: $2.57 for the case and $14.86 for the key. Ten openings cost $174.30 and 100 cost $1,743.00; it is number 15 of 42 on the list of cheapest CS2 cases.

Is the Shadow Case worth opening?

On average it returns $3.46 for every $17.43 opening, an ROI of 19.9% (rank 30 of 42 cases). About 4.0% of single openings return more than they cost. How it compares is on best CS2 cases to open.

What is the best item in the Shadow Case?

By current Steam Market price, the most valuable possible drop is the StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) at about $1,143.87.

Trade up to Shadow Case skins

Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.

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