XM1014 | Scumbria
XM1014 | Scumbria is a Mil-Spec Grade skin available from the Shadow Case.
What case is this from?
Trade up from XM1014 | Scumbria
10 Mil-Spec Grade skins, this one included, trade up into one Restricted skin from the inputs' collections. From the Shadow Case, the possible outcomes are:
XM1014 | Scumbria: drop odds, wear & source-case value
XM1014 | Scumbria is one of 7 Mil-Spec Grade skins in the Shadow Case. The Shadow Case pays out Mil-Spec Grade tier 79.923% of the time (1 in 1.3), and DropLabz's model treats every skin in a tier as equally likely, so this skin's base chance is about 11.418% per opening (1 in 8.8).
The base chance is the probability the opening lands on this skin at all, before its wear is rolled and before the 10% StatTrak roll (this skin is StatTrak-eligible). It is not the chance of a particular wear or a specific float.
| Wear | Chance, given this skin | Snapshot price | StatTrak price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 7.0% | $4.40 | $5.75 |
| Minimal Wear | 8.0% | $0.67 | $1.12 |
| Field-Tested | 23.0% | $0.60 | $0.59 |
| Well-Worn | 7.0% | $0.36 | $0.44 |
| Battle-Scarred | 55.0% | $0.34 | $0.40 |
Modeled wear chances assume uniform floats across the skin's range. They are not verified in-game wear rates; see the model assumptions and limitations. Prices are from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC; a dash means no price in the snapshot.
Related skins
More XM1014 skins · Best CS2 skins under $1 · Curious about the odds of pulling this? See Shadow Case odds & contents or open it in the simulator.