- Cost
- $364.61
- EV
- 23%
- $85.55
- Profit
- −$290.22
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.780 (needs < 0.875)13 outcomesActive market
Knife finish
Shadow Daggers | Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The Shadow Daggers | Fade starts at $200.58 on the Steam Market and drops from 1 case, at best 1 in 5,083 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from that case; the routes are below.
Price from
$200.58
Factory New
Drops from
1 case
Shadow Case
Best drop odds
1 in 5,083
0.0197% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$88,596.69
in the Shadow Case
Shadow Daggers | Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $200.58 | $264.11 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | $269.66 | — | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $200.58; unboxing this exact finish costs about $88,596.69 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Shadow Daggers | Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shadow Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $17.43 | $88,596.69 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Shadow Daggers | Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 7.7%.
- Cost
- $213.11
- EV
- 63%
- $134.81
- Profit
- −$95.89
- after fee
- Win %
- 12%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.762 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $233.83
- EV
- 59%
- $137.30
- Profit
- −$114.44
- after fee
- Win %
- 12%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.634 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $235.37
- EV
- 65%
- $152.01
- Profit
- −$103.19
- after fee
- Win %
- 6%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.864 (needs < 0.875)26 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $287.18
- EV
- 71%
- $205.17
- Profit
- −$108.77
- after fee
- Win %
- 14%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.863 (needs < 0.875)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $370.15
- EV
- 94%
- $347.59
- Profit
- −$67.90
- after fee
- Win %
- 31%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)78 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $213.11 | 7.7% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT★ Shadow Daggers | Night★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter★ Shadow Daggers | Stained★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.