- Cost
- $408.38
- EV
- 21%
- $86.91
- Profit
- −$332.81
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.422 (needs < 0.432)13 outcomesActive market
Knife finish
Shadow Daggers | Scorched: price, cases and trade-ups
The Shadow Daggers | Scorched starts at $54.82 on the Steam Market and drops from 1 case, at best 1 in 5,083 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from that case; the routes are below.
Price from
$54.82
Battle-Scarred
Drops from
1 case
Shadow Case
Best drop odds
1 in 5,083
0.0197% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$88,596.69
in the Shadow Case
Shadow Daggers | Scorched price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | — | 1.4% |
| Minimal Wear | $69.11 | $91.91 | 10.8% |
| Field-Tested | $58.66 | $72.80 | 31.1% |
| Well-Worn | $72.03 | $73.01 | 9.5% |
| Battle-Scarred | $54.82 | $75.99 | 47.3% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $54.82; unboxing this exact finish costs about $88,596.69 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Shadow Daggers | Scorched
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shadow Case | 0.0197% · 1 in 5,083 | 13 | $17.43 | $88,596.69 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Shadow Daggers | Scorched
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Field-Tested ★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched needs an average normalized input float of at least 0.1216 and below 0.4324 (output float 0.150–0.380). Best chance per contract: 7.7%.
- Cost
- $1,151
- EV
- 60%
- $689.34
- Profit
- −$551.60
- after fee
- Win %
- 25%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.422 (needs < 0.432)37 outcomesThin / unstable prices
- Cost
- $233.48
- EV
- 45%
- $105.19
- Profit
- −$142.01
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.422 (needs < 0.432)26 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $265.14
- EV
- 67%
- $176.63
- Profit
- −$111.55
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.422 (needs < 0.432)37 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $270.92
- EV
- 65%
- $176.63
- Profit
- −$117.33
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.422 (needs < 0.432)37 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $311.00
- EV
- 69%
- $214.30
- Profit
- −$124.65
- after fee
- Win %
- 14%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.394 (needs < 0.432)41 outcomesActive market
Required input float for each ★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.060–0.070 | < 0.0135 | no priced route | — |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0135 and < 0.1216 | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1216 and < 0.4324 | $233.48 | 7.7% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.4324 and < 0.5270 | no priced route | — |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–0.800 | ≥ 0.5270 and any | no priced route | — |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.06 + average × 0.74.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web★ Shadow Daggers | Fade★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT★ Shadow Daggers | Night★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter★ Shadow Daggers | Stained★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.