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Prisma 2 Case
Weapon case

Prisma 2 Case Odds, Drops & ROI

Released 2020-03-24 · 17 skins · 52 rare-special
Case price
$2.05
Key price
$2.50
store price (not marketable)
Open cost
$4.55

Simulator only — no real items are won. Prices are a cached Steam snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC and may be stale or missing for thin markets.

Rarity odds

Mil-Spec Grade
79.92%
Restricted
15.985%
Classified
3.197%
Covert
0.639%
Rare Special Item
0.256%
Knife / glove0.256% · 1 in 391
Covert+0.895%
StatTrak roll10% on eligible items
Within a tiereach skin equally likely

Expected value

Expected return
$2.62
Expected profit
−$1.93
ROI
-42.3%
House edge
42.3%
Profit chance / open
6.5%
Price coverage
99%
Rare-special contribution$0.8309
StatTrak contribution$0.0487
Assumptions
  • Open cost = case price + key price (key not marketable → $2.50 store price).
  • Skins within a tier are equally likely; StatTrak is an independent 10% roll.
  • P(wear) = share of the skin's float range inside each wear band.
  • Unpriced outcomes (1%) are excluded from the EV.
  • Values are Steam Community Market snapshot prices, not net of market fees.

Rare special item pool

0.256% combined

28 finishes share the 0.256% rare-special slot — roughly 1 in 10,948 for any single one. Doppler phases split their finish's share (phase odds are a community estimate; Valve never published them).

Covert

0.639% · 2 skins

Classified

3.197% · 3 skins

Restricted

15.985% · 5 skins

Mil-Spec Grade

79.92% · 7 skins

Prisma 2 Case at a glance

The Prisma 2 Case was released on 2020-03-24. One opening costs $4.55 ($2.05 for the case plus $2.50 for the key, the in-game store price since the key has no market listing), which ranks 9 of 42 cases from cheapest to most expensive. Its modeled expected return is $2.62 per opening, a modeled ROI of 57.7% (3 of 42 by ROI). That is an average over many openings, not a prediction for any single one.

Open cost
$4.55
Expected return
$2.62
Modeled ROI
57.7%
Gold odds
0.256%
1 in 391
P(knife)
0.256%
1 in 391
P(gloves)
—
No gloves
Rare-special pool
52
52 knife · 0 glove
Released
2020-03-24
Knife & glove families in this case

Knives: Navaja Knife (7 finishes), Stiletto Knife (7 finishes), Talon Knife (7 finishes), Ursus Knife (7 finishes)

Each knife/glove finish is equally likely within the gold tier: about 0.0091% per opening (1 in 10,948) for any one specific finish (Doppler phases share their finish's odds).

Open the Prisma 2 Case in the simulatorCompare ROI across every caseKnife chance calculatorKnife and glove odds by caseHow CS2 case odds workCase cost calculator

Prices from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC, not a live feed. Odds assume DropLabz's rarity model with equal weighting inside each tier.

Most valuable skins in the Prisma 2 Case

SkinRarityChance per openingSteam price by wear
M4A1-S | Player TwoCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$75.76 – $215.88
Glock-18 | Bullet QueenCovert0.320% · 1 in 313$68.06 – $200.00
MAC-10 | Disco TechClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$6.58 – $52.67
MAG-7 | JusticeClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$6.63 – $46.14
AK-47 | Phantom DisruptorClassified1.066% · 1 in 93.8$6.73 – $41.83
P2000 | Acid EtchedRestricted3.197% · 1 in 31.3$0.71 – $28.18
AWP | CapillaryMil-Spec Grade11.418% · 1 in 8.8$1.00 – $18.64
Desert Eagle | Blue PlyMil-Spec Grade11.418% · 1 in 8.8$0.44 – $12.00

The 8 priciest of the case's 17 weapon skins, by their best non-StatTrak™ wear. The range runs from the cheapest wear to the most expensive; every skin and its odds are listed above.

Prisma 2 Case knives: cheapest and most expensive

Cheapest knives

Most expensive knives

Each of the 28 finishes has the same 1 in 10,948 chance per opening. Prices are each finish's lowest Steam Market listing; a + marks the Steam listing cap, where the real price is higher.

Prisma 2 Case knife odds after N openings

Cases openedAt least one knifeOne specific finishCost
102.5%0.09%$45.50
5012.0%0.46%$227.50
10022.6%0.91%$455.00
25047.3%2.26%$1,137.50
50072.2%4.46%$2,275.00
1,00092.3%8.73%$4,550.00

0.256% per opening, so 1 − (1 − 0.00256)N after N. A 50% chance takes 271 openings and a 90% chance takes 900 (about $1,233.05 and $4,095.00 at today's $4.55 per opening).

Prisma 2 Case: odds, cost and value

What are the knife odds in the Prisma 2 Case?

0.26% per opening, or 1 in 391. The pool holds 28 finishes across 4 types (Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife, Ursus Knife), so one exact finish is 1 in 10,948. On average one of its knives costs about $1,779.05 in openings.

What are the drop rates in the Prisma 2 Case?

Mil-Spec Grade (blue) 79.92%, Restricted (purple) 15.98%, Classified (pink) 3.20%, Covert (red) 0.64%, Rare Special Item (gold) 0.26%. It contains 17 weapon skins and 28 knife finishes; each skin inside a rarity is equally likely, and eligible drops have a 10% StatTrak™ chance.

How much does it cost to open the Prisma 2 Case?

$4.55 per opening: $2.05 for the case and $2.50 for the key. Ten openings cost $45.50 and 100 cost $455.00; it is number 9 of 42 on the list of cheapest CS2 cases.

Is the Prisma 2 Case worth opening?

On average it returns $2.62 for every $4.55 opening, an ROI of 57.7% (rank 3 of 42 cases). About 6.5% of single openings return more than they cost. How it compares is on best CS2 cases to open.

What is the best item in the Prisma 2 Case?

By current Steam Market price, the most valuable possible drop is the StatTrak™ ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) at $1,865+. That is the Steam listing cap, so it trades for more elsewhere.

Trade up to Prisma 2 Case skins

Every skin below can be the result of a trade-up using this case's collection — see the routes, odds and input floats for each.

Compare this case

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