Case comparison
Prisma Case vs Prisma 2 Case
Cost, modeled expected return and ROI, gold odds and pool contents for both cases, using a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC.
 Prisma Case |  Prisma 2 Case | |
|---|---|---|
| Released | 2019-03-05 | 2020-03-24 |
| Case price | $2.17 | $2.05 |
| Key price | $16.04 | $2.50* |
| Total open cost | $18.21 | $4.55 |
| Expected return | $3.16 | $2.62 |
| Modeled ROI | 17.4% | 57.7% |
| Gold odds | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 |
| P(knife) | 0.256% | 0.256% |
| P(gloves) | — | — |
| Rare-special items | 52 (52 knife · 0 glove) | 52 (52 knife · 0 glove) |
| Knife / glove families | Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife, Ursus Knife | Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife, Ursus Knife |
| Mil-Spec skins | 7 | 7 |
| Restricted skins | 5 | 5 |
| Classified skins | 3 | 3 |
| Covert skins | 2 | 2 |
| Highest-priced outcome | StatTrak™ ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) — $1,865.47 | StatTrak™ ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) — $1,865.47 |
* Key price is the $2.50 in-game store price because the key has no Steam market listing.
What the numbers show
- Based on DropLabz's current price snapshot, Prisma 2 Case has the higher modeled ROI (57.7% vs 17.4%). Both are below 100%, meaning each has a negative modeled expected value.
- In dollar terms, Prisma Case has the higher modeled expected return ($3.16 vs $2.62), but it also costs more to open, so its ROI is lower.
- Prisma 2 Case costs less to open: $4.55 (case + key) against $18.21 for Prisma Case.
- Both have the same gold (rare-special) chance, 0.256% (1 in 391), since both carry the same rarity tiers.
- Both rare-special pools contain knives only; Prisma Case has 52 items and Prisma 2 Case has 52.
This is a description of modeled figures, not a recommendation. ROI is expected return ÷ opening cost under DropLabz's rarity model (equal weighting within each tier, 10% StatTrak on eligible skins); unpriced outcomes are excluded from expected return. Prices come from a snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC.
Prisma Case
Prisma 2 Case
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