- Cost
- $350.50
- EV
- 90%
- $317.08
- Profit
- −$74.78
- after fee
- Win %
- 29%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.799 (needs < 0.875)56 outcomesActive market
Knife finish
Talon Knife | Marble Fade: price, cases and trade-ups
The Talon Knife | Marble Fade starts at $668.59 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 10,948 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$668.59
StatTrak™ Minimal Wear
Drops from
2 cases
Prisma 2 Case
Best drop odds
1 in 10,948
0.0091% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$49,813.40
in the Prisma 2 Case
Talon Knife | Marble Fade price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $801.54 | $805.00 | 87.5% |
| Minimal Wear | $840.03 | $668.59 | 12.5% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $668.59; unboxing this exact finish costs about $49,813.40 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Talon Knife | Marble Fade
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prisma 2 Case | 0.0091% · 1 in 10,948 | 28 | $4.55 | $49,813.40 |
| Prisma Case | 0.0091% · 1 in 10,948 | 28 | $18.21 | $199,363.08 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Talon Knife | Marble Fade
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade needs an average normalized input float below 0.8750 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 3.6%.
- Cost
- $211.26
- EV
- 86%
- $181.11
- Profit
- −$53.77
- after fee
- Win %
- 22%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.762 (needs < 0.875)41 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $216.24
- EV
- 84%
- $181.29
- Profit
- −$58.59
- after fee
- Win %
- 22%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.671 (needs < 0.875)41 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $233.52
- EV
- 85%
- $198.31
- Profit
- −$61.08
- after fee
- Win %
- 15%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.864 (needs < 0.875)41 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $368.30
- EV
- 107%
- $394.08
- Profit
- −$25.62
- after fee
- Win %
- 35%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.680 (needs < 0.875)93 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $373.28
- EV
- 106%
- $394.08
- Profit
- −$30.60
- after fee
- Win %
- 34%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.589 (needs < 0.875)93 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.8750 | $211.26 | 3.6% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.080 | ≥ 0.8750 and any | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
| Battle-Scarred | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.00–0.08 float range | |||
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.08.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel★ Navaja Knife | Doppler★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.