- Cost
- $912.27
- EV
- 37%
- $339.30
- Profit
- −$617.23
- after fee
- Win %
- 4%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.076 (needs < 0.083)56 outcomesActive market
Knife finish
Ursus Knife | Rust Coat: price, cases and trade-ups
The Ursus Knife | Rust Coat starts at $82.79 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 10,948 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$82.79
Battle-Scarred
Drops from
2 cases
Prisma 2 Case
Best drop odds
1 in 10,948
0.0091% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$49,813.40
in the Prisma 2 Case
Ursus Knife | Rust Coat price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Well-Worn | $85.76 | $130.15 | 8.3% |
| Battle-Scarred | $82.79 | $90.29 | 91.7% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $82.79; unboxing this exact finish costs about $49,813.40 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Ursus Knife | Rust Coat
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prisma 2 Case | 0.0091% · 1 in 10,948 | 28 | $4.55 | $49,813.40 |
| Prisma Case | 0.0091% · 1 in 10,948 | 28 | $18.21 | $199,363.08 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Ursus Knife | Rust Coat
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Well-Worn ★ Ursus Knife | Rust Coat needs an average normalized input float below 0.0833 (output float 0.400–0.450). Best chance per contract: 3.6%.
- Cost
- $561.02
- EV
- 52%
- $289.49
- Profit
- −$309.29
- after fee
- Win %
- 8%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.082 (needs < 0.083)56 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $638.54
- EV
- 57%
- $362.35
- Profit
- −$323.46
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.082 (needs < 0.083)52 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $680.39
- EV
- 55%
- $372.63
- Profit
- −$356.36
- after fee
- Win %
- 15%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.082 (needs < 0.083)58 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $560.91
- EV
- 49%
- $272.89
- Profit
- −$323.61
- after fee
- Win %
- 6%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.076 (needs < 0.083)56 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $1,441
- EV
- 65%
- $936.85
- Profit
- −$625.98
- after fee
- Win %
- 18%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.081 (needs < 0.083)41 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Ursus Knife | Rust Coat wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.40–1.00 float range | |||
| Minimal Wear | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.40–1.00 float range | |||
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.40–1.00 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | 0.400–0.450 | < 0.0833 | $560.91 | 3.6% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.0833 and any | $208.54 | 3.6% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.40 + average × 0.60.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel★ Navaja Knife | Doppler★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.