- Cost
- $1,205
- EV
- 36%
- $432.78
- Profit
- −$829.14
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.082 (needs < 0.083)60 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Falchion Knife | Rust Coat: price, cases and trade-ups
The Falchion Knife | Rust Coat starts at $89.74 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 11,730 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$89.74
Battle-Scarred
Drops from
2 cases
Spectrum 2 Case
Best drop odds
1 in 11,730
0.0085% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$263,103.90
in the Spectrum 2 Case
Falchion Knife | Rust Coat price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Well-Worn | $98.15 | $164.86 | 8.3% |
| Battle-Scarred | $89.74 | $101.96 | 91.7% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $89.74; unboxing this exact finish costs about $263,103.90 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Falchion Knife | Rust Coat
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spectrum 2 Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $22.43 | $263,103.90 |
| Spectrum Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $24.46 | $286,915.80 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Falchion Knife | Rust Coat
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Well-Worn ★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat needs an average normalized input float below 0.0833 (output float 0.400–0.450). Best chance per contract: 3.3%.
- Cost
- $613.12
- EV
- 48%
- $291.59
- Profit
- −$359.57
- after fee
- Win %
- 7%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.076 (needs < 0.083)58 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $614.92
- EV
- 47%
- $291.59
- Profit
- −$361.37
- after fee
- Win %
- 7%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.076 (needs < 0.083)58 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $716.48
- EV
- 54%
- $388.73
- Profit
- −$378.46
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.076 (needs < 0.083)54 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $718.28
- EV
- 54%
- $388.73
- Profit
- −$380.26
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.076 (needs < 0.083)54 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $736.10
- EV
- 53%
- $387.19
- Profit
- −$399.41
- after fee
- Win %
- 19%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.083 (needs < 0.083)60 outcomesActive market
Required input float for each ★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.40–1.00 float range | |||
| Minimal Wear | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.40–1.00 float range | |||
| Field-Tested | Not possible — outside this skin's 0.40–1.00 float range | |||
| Well-Worn | 0.400–0.450 | < 0.0833 | $613.12 | 3.3% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.0833 and any | $262.98 | 3.3% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.40 + average × 0.60.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel★ Bowie Knife | Doppler★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.