- Cost
- $533.82
- EV
- 70%
- $372.73
- Profit
- −$209.71
- after fee
- Win %
- 20%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.138 (needs < 0.140)30 outcomesActive market
Knife finish
Shadow Daggers | Bright Water: price, cases and trade-ups
The Shadow Daggers | Bright Water starts at $45.00 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 11,730 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Rare Special ItemFloat range 0.00–0.50Dreams & Nightmares CaseOperation Riptide CaseAll Shadow Daggers finishes
Price from
$45.00
Well-Worn
Drops from
2 cases
Dreams & Nightmares Case
Best drop odds
1 in 11,730
0.0085% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$50,908.20
in the Dreams & Nightmares Case
Shadow Daggers | Bright Water price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $61.87 | $81.50 | 14.0% |
| Minimal Wear | $56.06 | $62.62 | 16.0% |
| Field-Tested | $53.34 | $54.72 | 46.0% |
| Well-Worn | $45.00 | $55.84 | 14.0% |
| Battle-Scarred | $51.84 | $68.24 | 10.0% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $45.00; unboxing this exact finish costs about $50,908.20 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Shadow Daggers | Bright Water
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $4.34 | $50,908.20 |
| Operation Riptide Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $17.32 | $203,163.60 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Shadow Daggers | Bright Water
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water needs an average normalized input float below 0.1400 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 3.3%.
- Cost
- $482.12
- EV
- 70%
- $335.55
- Profit
- −$190.34
- after fee
- Win %
- 17%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)82 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $512.23
- EV
- 71%
- $364.18
- Profit
- −$195.55
- after fee
- Win %
- 19%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.140 (needs < 0.140)58 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $690.78
- EV
- 76%
- $526.36
- Profit
- −$233.07
- after fee
- Win %
- 28%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.138 (needs < 0.140)60 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $350.58
- EV
- 48%
- $167.12
- Profit
- −$205.26
- after fee
- Win %
- 4%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.138 (needs < 0.140)43 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $438.78
- EV
- 64%
- $280.69
- Profit
- −$194.70
- after fee
- Win %
- 15%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.138 (needs < 0.140)82 outcomesActive market
Required input float for each ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.1400 | $350.58 | 3.3% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.1400 and < 0.3000 | no priced route | — |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.3000 and < 0.7600 | $227.54 | 3.3% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.7600 and < 0.9000 | no priced route | — |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–0.500 | ≥ 0.9000 and any | no priced route | — |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 0.50.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water★ Bowie Knife | Freehand★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler★ Bowie Knife | Lore★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler★ Butterfly Knife | Lore
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.