- Cost
- $759.75
- EV
- 48%
- $364.74
- Profit
- −$442.59
- after fee
- Win %
- 17%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)30 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Shadow Daggers | Lore: price, cases and trade-ups
The Shadow Daggers | Lore starts at $73.03 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 11,730 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Rare Special ItemFloat range 0.00–1.00Dreams & Nightmares CaseOperation Riptide CaseAll Shadow Daggers finishes
Price from
$73.03
Battle-Scarred
Drops from
2 cases
Dreams & Nightmares Case
Best drop odds
1 in 11,730
0.0085% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$50,908.20
in the Dreams & Nightmares Case
Shadow Daggers | Lore price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $189.99 | $247.25 | 7.0% |
| Minimal Wear | $99.78 | $103.75 | 8.0% |
| Field-Tested | $80.44 | $80.44 | 23.0% |
| Well-Worn | $77.01 | $89.50 | 7.0% |
| Battle-Scarred | $73.03 | $86.54 | 55.0% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $73.03; unboxing this exact finish costs about $50,908.20 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Shadow Daggers | Lore
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $4.34 | $50,908.20 |
| Operation Riptide Case | 0.0085% · 1 in 11,730 | 30 | $17.32 | $203,163.60 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Shadow Daggers | Lore
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore needs an average normalized input float below 0.0700 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 3.3%.
- Cost
- $727.09
- EV
- 44%
- $320.23
- Profit
- −$448.63
- after fee
- Win %
- 13%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)43 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $780.97
- EV
- 47%
- $370.33
- Profit
- −$458.95
- after fee
- Win %
- 15%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)54 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $829.24
- EV
- 50%
- $414.98
- Profit
- −$468.39
- after fee
- Win %
- 15%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)60 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $600.59
- EV
- 46%
- $277.98
- Profit
- −$358.87
- after fee
- Win %
- 6%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)58 outcomesActive market
- Cost
- $703.95
- EV
- 53%
- $375.12
- Profit
- −$377.76
- after fee
- Win %
- 10%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)54 outcomesActive market
Required input float for each ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.0700 | $600.59 | 3.3% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0700 and < 0.1500 | $316.71 | 3.3% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1500 and < 0.3800 | $256.56 | 3.3% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.3800 and < 0.4500 | $230.63 | 3.3% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.4500 and any | $223.25 | 3.3% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 1.00.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water★ Bowie Knife | Freehand★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler★ Bowie Knife | Lore★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler★ Butterfly Knife | Lore
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.