Case comparison
Recoil Case vs Revolution Case
Cost, modeled expected return and ROI, gold odds and pool contents for both cases, using a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC.
 Recoil Case |  Revolution Case | |
|---|---|---|
| Released | 2022-05-30 | 2023-01-31 |
| Case price | $0.47 | $0.38 |
| Key price | $2.50* | $2.50* |
| Total open cost | $2.97 | $2.88 |
| Expected return | $1.46 | $1.30 |
| Modeled ROI | 49.3% | 45.2% |
| Gold odds | 0.256% · 1 in 391 | 0.256% · 1 in 391 |
| P(knife) | — | — |
| P(gloves) | 0.256% | 0.256% |
| Rare-special items | 24 (0 knife · 24 glove) | 24 (0 knife · 24 glove) |
| Knife / glove families | Broken Fang Gloves, Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves | Driver Gloves, Hand Wraps, Hydra Gloves, Moto Gloves, Specialist Gloves, Sport Gloves |
| Mil-Spec skins | 7 | 7 |
| Restricted skins | 5 | 5 |
| Classified skins | 3 | 3 |
| Covert skins | 2 | 2 |
| Highest-priced outcome | ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) — $1,550.00 | ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) — $1,854.12 |
* Key price is the $2.50 in-game store price because the key has no Steam market listing.
What the numbers show
- Based on DropLabz's current price snapshot, Recoil Case has the higher modeled ROI (49.3% vs 45.2%). Both are below 100%, meaning each has a negative modeled expected value.
- Recoil Case also has the higher modeled expected return per opening ($1.46 vs $1.30).
- Revolution Case costs less to open: $2.88 (case + key) against $2.97 for Recoil Case.
- Both have the same gold (rare-special) chance, 0.256% (1 in 391), since both carry the same rarity tiers.
- Both rare-special pools contain gloves only; Recoil Case has 24 items and Revolution Case has 24.
This is a description of modeled figures, not a recommendation. ROI is expected return ÷ opening cost under DropLabz's rarity model (equal weighting within each tier, 10% StatTrak on eligible skins); unpriced outcomes are excluded from expected return. Prices come from a snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC.
Recoil Case
Revolution Case
See every case ranked on Case ROI, the rarity math on CS2 case odds, or other case comparisons.