- Cost
- $919.05
- EV
- 25%
- $230.35
- Profit
- −$718.75
- after fee
- Win %
- 0%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)52 outcomesSome thin prices
Knife finish
Nomad Knife | Case Hardened: price, cases and trade-ups
The Nomad Knife | Case Hardened starts at $188.34 on the Steam Market and drops from 2 cases, at best 1 in 20,332 per opening. It can also be made by trading up 5 Covert skins from one of those cases; the routes are below.
Price from
$188.34
Battle-Scarred
Drops from
2 cases
Fracture Case
Best drop odds
1 in 20,332
0.0049% per opening
Avg cost to unbox
$66,688.96
in the Fracture Case
Nomad Knife | Case Hardened price by wear
| Wear | Steam price | StatTrak™ price | Chance of this wear |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $474.08 | — | 7.0% |
| Minimal Wear | $318.16 | $318.16 | 8.0% |
| Field-Tested | $223.98 | $240.46 | 23.0% |
| Well-Worn | $194.95 | $228.89 | 7.0% |
| Battle-Scarred | $188.34 | $225.23 | 55.0% |
Steam Community Market averages from the csgotrader.app steam.json (Steam Community Market) snapshot, market data updated Oct 27, 2026; a dash means no usable price. Chance of each wear is its share of the finish's float range, which is how a fresh drop's wear is rolled. Buying the cheapest one costs $188.34; unboxing this exact finish costs about $66,688.96 in openings on average.
Cases that drop the Nomad Knife | Case Hardened
| Case | Chance of this finish | Finishes in pool | Open cost | Avg cost to unbox |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fracture Case | 0.0049% · 1 in 20,332 | 52 | $3.28 | $66,688.96 |
| Shattered Web Case | 0.0049% · 1 in 20,332 | 52 | $10.33 | $210,029.56 |
The chance is the case's gold odds split evenly across every knife finish in its pool, before wear and the 10% StatTrak™ roll. Your chance over many openings is on the knife chance calculator; every case is compared on knife odds by case.
Trade up to the Nomad Knife | Case Hardened
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026Steam Community Market averages · snapshot 2026-10-27 10:25 UTC
Factory New ★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened needs an average normalized input float below 0.0700 (output float 0.000–0.070). Best chance per contract: 1.9%.
- Cost
- $632.45
- EV
- 40%
- $251.10
- Profit
- −$414.10
- after fee
- Win %
- 4%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)80 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $660.97
- EV
- 24%
- $159.82
- Profit
- −$522.00
- after fee
- Win %
- 1%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)65 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $735.81
- EV
- 47%
- $348.24
- Profit
- −$432.99
- after fee
- Win %
- 7%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)76 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $791.61
- EV
- 43%
- $337.86
- Profit
- −$497.82
- after fee
- Win %
- 11%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)82 outcomesSome thin prices
- Cost
- $1,070
- EV
- 50%
- $538.82
- Profit
- −$601.03
- after fee
- Win %
- 13%
- to profit
Avg float ≤ 0.070 (needs < 0.070)82 outcomesSome thin prices
Required input float for each ★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened wear
| Wear | Output float | Avg normalized input float | Cheapest route | Best chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.000–0.070 | < 0.0700 | $632.45 | 1.9% |
| Minimal Wear | 0.070–0.150 | ≥ 0.0700 and < 0.1500 | $282.72 | 1.9% |
| Field-Tested | 0.150–0.380 | ≥ 0.1500 and < 0.3800 | $219.63 | 1.9% |
| Well-Worn | 0.380–0.450 | ≥ 0.3800 and < 0.4500 | $196.63 | 1.9% |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.450–1.000 | ≥ 0.4500 and any | $187.07 | 1.9% |
The average is over every input's float normalized to its own range. Output float = 0.00 + average × 1.00.
Other trade-up targets in this collection
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel★ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web★ Nomad Knife | Fade★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh★ Nomad Knife | Scorched★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter★ Nomad Knife | Stained★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel
How CS2 trade-up contracts work
Inputs & odds
10 skins of one rarity become 1 skin of the next rarity (Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins can become a knife or gloves from those skins' case. Each input collection gets its share of the odds (inputs from it ÷ total), split evenly across that collection's next-tier skins.
Float math
Every input float is normalized to its own skin's range — (float − min) ÷ (max − min) — and averaged. Each output's float is its min + average × (max − min), so a restricted-range skin like 0.10–0.20 can only land in the wears its range allows.
Prices, fees & freshness
Values are Steam Community Market averages from the snapshot dated on each page. Profit subtracts the ~13% Steam seller fee. StatTrak™ inputs give StatTrak™ outputs (knives only — gloves have no StatTrak™). Map collections outside weapon cases aren't in DropLabz's dataset yet.
Pick the skin you want in the reverse trade-up finder, check any contract in the trade-up calculator, or compare with opening cases on case ROI and knife odds.