M4A1-S | Guardian
M4A1-S | Guardian is a Classified skin available from the Winter Offensive Weapon Case.
What case is this from?
Trade up to M4A1-S | Guardian
10 Restricted skins from the Winter Offensive Weapon Case collection can produce it. See every route, its odds and the input float each wear needs.
Trade up from M4A1-S | Guardian
10 Classified skins, this one included, trade up into one Covert skin from the inputs' collections. From the Winter Offensive Weapon Case, the possible outcomes are:
M4A1-S | Guardian: drop odds, wear & source-case value
M4A1-S | Guardian is one of 3 Classified skins in the Winter Offensive Weapon Case. The Winter Offensive Weapon Case pays out Classified tier 3.197% of the time (1 in 31.3), and DropLabz's model treats every skin in a tier as equally likely, so this skin's base chance is about 1.066% per opening (1 in 93.8).
The base chance is the probability the opening lands on this skin at all, before its wear is rolled and before the 10% StatTrak roll (this skin is StatTrak-eligible). It is not the chance of a particular wear or a specific float.
| Wear | Chance, given this skin | Snapshot price | StatTrak price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 14.0% | $127.62 | $134.28 |
| Minimal Wear | 16.0% | $43.87 | $99.19 |
| Field-Tested | 46.0% | $33.93 | $67.06 |
| Well-Worn | 14.0% | $31.59 | $77.79 |
| Battle-Scarred | 10.0% | $32.36 | $67.55 |
Modeled wear chances assume uniform floats across the skin's range. They are not verified in-game wear rates; see the model assumptions and limitations. Prices are from a Steam Community Market snapshot dated Oct 27, 2026, 10:25 AM UTC; a dash means no price in the snapshot.
Related skins
More M4A1-S skins · M4A1-S skins under $50 · Best CS2 skins under $50 · Curious about the odds of pulling this? See Winter Offensive Weapon Case odds & contents or open it in the simulator.